10-Q
Table of Contents

UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, DC 20549
 
FORM 10-Q
(Mark One)
 
x QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
 
For the quarterly period ended: September 30, 2015
or
 
¨ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
 
For the transition period from_____________________________to_____________________________
 
Commission File Number: 001-33067
 
SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP, INC.
(Exact Name of Registrant as Specified in Its Charter)
 
New Jersey
 
22-2168890
(State or Other Jurisdiction of Incorporation or Organization)
 
(I.R.S. Employer Identification No.)
 
 
 
40 Wantage Avenue
 
 
Branchville, New Jersey
 
07890
(Address of Principal Executive Offices)
 
(Zip Code)
 
(973) 948-3000
(Registrant’s Telephone Number, Including Area Code)
 
(Former Name, Former Address and Former Fiscal Year, if Changed Since Last Report)
 
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant: (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days.
Yesx           No o
 
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant has submitted electronically and posted on its corporate Web site, if any, every Interactive Data File required to be submitted and posted pursuant to Rule 405 of Regulation S-T during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to submit and post such files).
Yesx           No o

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a non-accelerated filer, or a smaller reporting company. See the definitions of “large accelerated filer,” “accelerated filer” and “smaller reporting company” in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act.
Large accelerated filer x
 
Accelerated filer o
Non-accelerated filer o
 
Smaller reporting company o
(Do not check if a smaller reporting company)
 
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act).                                                              Yeso          Nox
As of October 15, 2015, there were 57,195,450 shares of common stock, par value $2.00 per share, outstanding. 


Table of Contents

 
SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP, INC.
 
 
Table of Contents
 
 
 
Page No.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Federal Income Taxes
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


Table of Contents

PART I. FINANCIAL INFORMATION
 
ITEM 1. FINANCIAL STATEMENTS.
 
SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP, INC.
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS
 
Unaudited
 
 
($ in thousands, except share amounts)
 
September 30,
2015
 
December 31,
2014
ASSETS
 
 

 
 

Investments:
 
 

 
 

Fixed income securities, held-to-maturity – at carrying value (fair value:  $240,388 – 2015; $333,961 – 2014)
 
$
229,869

 
318,137

Fixed income securities, available-for-sale – at fair value (amortized cost: $4,273,771 – 2015; $3,975,786 – 2014)
 
4,351,046

 
4,066,122

Equity securities, available-for-sale – at fair value (cost:  $220,820 – 2015; $159,011 – 2014)
 
221,951

 
191,400

Short-term investments (at cost which approximates fair value)
 
125,855

 
131,972

Other investments
 
85,146

 
99,203

Total investments (Note 4)
 
5,013,867


4,806,834

Cash
 
15,113

 
23,959

Interest and dividends due or accrued
 
38,009

 
38,901

Premiums receivable, net of allowance for uncollectible accounts of:  $4,612 – 2015; $4,137 – 2014
 
653,966

 
558,778

Reinsurance recoverables, net
 
561,364

 
581,548

Prepaid reinsurance premiums
 
148,634

 
146,993

Deferred federal income tax
 
93,062

 
98,449

Property and equipment – at cost, net of accumulated depreciation and amortization of:
$184,406 – 2015; $172,183 – 2014
 
65,657

 
59,416

Deferred policy acquisition costs
 
213,666

 
185,608

Goodwill
 
7,849

 
7,849

Other assets
 
86,930

 
73,215

Total assets
 
$
6,898,117

 
6,581,550

 
 
 
 
 
LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS’ EQUITY
 
 

 
 

Liabilities:
 
 

 
 

Reserve for loss and loss expenses
 
$
3,517,751

 
3,477,870

Unearned premiums
 
1,218,884

 
1,095,819

Notes payable
 
394,309

 
379,297

Current federal income tax
 
12,607

 
3,921

Accrued salaries and benefits
 
158,044

 
158,382

Other liabilities
 
237,500

 
190,675

Total liabilities
 
$
5,539,095

 
5,305,964

 
 
 
 
 
Stockholders’ Equity:
 
 

 
 

Preferred stock of $0 par value per share:
 
$

 

Authorized shares 5,000,000; no shares issued or outstanding
 
 
 
 
Common stock of $2 par value per share:
 
 
 
 
Authorized shares 360,000,000
 
 
 
 
Issued: 100,673,864 – 2015; 99,947,933 – 2014
 
201,348

 
199,896

Additional paid-in capital
 
320,987

 
305,385

Retained earnings
 
1,409,536

 
1,313,440

Accumulated other comprehensive (loss) income (Note 10)
 
(6,039
)
 
19,788

Treasury stock – at cost
(shares:  43,492,212 – 2015; 43,353,181 – 2014)
 
(566,810
)
 
(562,923
)
Total stockholders’ equity
 
$
1,359,022

 
1,275,586

Commitments and contingencies
 


 


Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity
 
$
6,898,117

 
6,581,550


The accompanying notes are an integral part of these unaudited interim consolidated financial statements.

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Table of Contents

SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP, INC.
UNAUDITED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF INCOME
 
Quarter ended September 30,
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
($ in thousands, except per share amounts)
 
2015
 
2014
 
2015
 
2014
Revenues:
 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 
Net premiums earned
 
$
507,390

 
462,639

 
1,473,822

 
1,382,759

Net investment income earned
 
32,061

 
34,292

 
91,208

 
106,600

Net realized gains:
 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 
Net realized investment gains
 
1,590

 
15,231

 
23,598

 
28,370

Other-than-temporary impairments
 
(1,282
)
 

 
(7,827
)
 
(1,382
)
Total net realized gains
 
308

 
15,231

 
15,771

 
26,988

Other income
 
698

 
3,196

 
5,521

 
14,931

Total revenues
 
540,457

 
515,358

 
1,586,322

 
1,531,278

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Expenses:
 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 
Loss and loss expense incurred
 
285,161

 
270,932

 
861,721

 
889,273

Policy acquisition costs
 
174,802

 
158,101

 
509,295

 
462,540

Interest expense
 
5,489

 
5,558

 
16,458

 
16,544

Other expenses
 
9,166

 
5,441

 
29,954

 
22,990

Total expenses
 
474,618

 
440,032

 
1,417,428

 
1,391,347

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Income before federal income tax
 
65,839

 
75,326

 
168,894

 
139,931

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Federal income tax expense:
 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 
Current
 
9,141

 
7,373

 
29,128

 
22,692

Deferred
 
9,702

 
14,791

 
19,294

 
16,762

Total federal income tax expense
 
18,843

 
22,164

 
48,422

 
39,454

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income
 
$
46,996

 
53,162

 
120,472

 
100,477

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Earnings per share:
 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 
Basic net income
 
$
0.82

 
0.94

 
2.11

 
1.79

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Diluted net income
 
$
0.81

 
0.93

 
2.08

 
1.75

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Dividends to stockholders
 
$
0.14

 
0.13

 
0.42

 
0.39

 
The accompanying notes are an integral part of these unaudited interim consolidated financial statements. 
 


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SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP, INC.
UNAUDITED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME
 
Quarter ended September 30,
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
($ in thousands)
 
2015
 
2014
 
2015
 
2014
Net income
 
$
46,996

 
53,162

 
120,472

 
100,477

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other comprehensive income (loss), net of tax:
 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 
Unrealized gains (losses) on investment securities:
 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 
Unrealized holding gains (losses) arising during period
 
5,442

 
(8,988
)
 
(18,132
)
 
41,767

  Amount reclassified into net income:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Held-to-maturity securities
 
(63
)
 
(243
)
 
(353
)
 
(683
)
Non-credit other-than-temporary impairments
 

 
780

 
232

 
1,085

Realized gains on available-for-sale securities
 
(199
)
 
(10,683
)
 
(10,906
)
 
(18,637
)
Total unrealized gains (losses) on investment securities
 
5,180

 
(19,134
)
 
(29,159
)
 
23,532

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Defined benefit pension and post-retirement plans:
 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 
Amounts reclassified into net income:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net actuarial loss
 
1,110

 
247

 
3,332

 
742

  Total defined benefit pension and post-retirement plans
 
1,110

 
247

 
3,332

 
742

Other comprehensive income (loss)
 
6,290

 
(18,887
)
 
(25,827
)
 
24,274

Comprehensive income
 
$
53,286

 
34,275

 
94,645

 
124,751

 
The accompanying notes are an integral part of these unaudited interim consolidated financial statements.
 


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SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP, INC.
UNAUDITED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF STOCKHOLDERS’ EQUITY
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
($ in thousands)
 
2015
 
2014
Common stock:
 
 

 
 

Beginning of year
 
$
199,896

 
198,240

Dividend reinvestment plan (shares:  38,947 – 2015; 44,322 – 2014)
 
78

 
89

Stock purchase and compensation plans (shares:  686,984 – 2015; 588,858 – 2014)
 
1,374

 
1,178

End of period
 
201,348

 
199,507

 
 
 
 
 
Additional paid-in capital:
 
 

 
 

Beginning of year
 
305,385

 
288,182

Dividend reinvestment plan
 
1,014

 
957

Stock purchase and compensation plans
 
14,588

 
11,286

End of period
 
320,987

 
300,425

 
 
 
 
 
Retained earnings:
 
 

 
 

Beginning of year
 
1,313,440

 
1,202,015

Net income
 
120,472

 
100,477

Dividends to stockholders ($0.42 per share – 2015; $0.39 per share – 2014)
 
(24,376
)
 
(22,344
)
End of period
 
1,409,536

 
1,280,148

 
 
 
 
 
Accumulated other comprehensive (loss) income:
 
 

 
 

Beginning of year
 
19,788

 
24,851

Other comprehensive (loss) income
 
(25,827
)
 
24,274

End of period
 
(6,039
)
 
49,125

 
 
 
 
 
Treasury stock:
 
 

 
 

Beginning of year
 
(562,923
)
 
(559,360
)
Acquisition of treasury stock (shares: 139,031 – 2015; 130,573 – 2014)
 
(3,887
)
 
(2,920
)
End of period
 
(566,810
)
 
(562,280
)
Total stockholders’ equity
 
$
1,359,022

 
1,266,925

 
Selective Insurance Group, Inc. also has authorized, but not issued, 5,000,000 shares of preferred stock, without par value, of which 300,000 shares have been
designated Series A junior preferred stock, without par value.
  
The accompanying notes are an integral part of these unaudited interim consolidated financial statements.
 


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SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP, INC.
UNAUDITED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOW
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
($ in thousands)
 
2015
 
2014
Operating Activities
 
 

 
 

Net income
 
$
120,472

 
100,477

 
 
 
 
 
Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities:
 
 

 
 

Depreciation and amortization
 
43,868

 
31,059

Sale of renewal rights
 

 
(8,000
)
Stock-based compensation expense
 
7,626

 
7,421

Undistributed losses (gains) of equity method investments
 
781

 
(131
)
Net realized gains
 
(15,771
)
 
(26,988
)
 
 
 
 
 
Changes in assets and liabilities:
 
 

 
 

Increase in reserve for loss and loss expenses, net of reinsurance recoverables
 
60,065

 
86,887

Increase in unearned premiums, net of prepaid reinsurance
 
121,424

 
68,935

Decrease in net federal income taxes
 
27,980

 
33,596

Increase in premiums receivable
 
(95,188
)
 
(66,816
)
Increase in deferred policy acquisition costs
 
(28,058
)
 
(16,700
)
Decrease (increase) in interest and dividends due or accrued
 
979

 
(82
)
Decrease in accrued salaries and benefits
 
(338
)
 
(13,958
)
Increase (decrease) in accrued insurance expenses
 
7,154

 
(12,545
)
Increase (decrease) in other assets and other liabilities
 
8,039

 
(25,036
)
Net adjustments
 
138,561

 
57,642

Net cash provided by operating activities
 
259,033

 
158,119

 
 
 
 
 
Investing Activities
 
 

 
 

Purchase of fixed income securities, available-for-sale
 
(731,154
)
 
(560,493
)
Purchase of equity securities, available-for-sale
 
(192,717
)
 
(185,529
)
Purchase of other investments
 
(6,589
)
 
(8,498
)
Purchase of short-term investments
 
(1,084,794
)
 
(1,082,192
)
Sale of fixed income securities, available-for-sale
 
22,323

 
35,499

Sale of short-term investments
 
1,090,911

 
1,074,850

Redemption and maturities of fixed income securities, held-to-maturity
 
79,972

 
56,375

Redemption and maturities of fixed income securities, available-for-sale
 
403,510

 
336,939

Sale of equity securities, available-for-sale
 
148,228

 
186,001

Distributions from other investments
 
22,038

 
13,514

Purchase of property and equipment
 
(11,869
)
 
(9,178
)
Sale of renewal rights
 

 
8,000

Net cash used in investing activities
 
(260,141
)
 
(134,712
)
 
 
 
 
 
Financing Activities
 
 

 
 

Dividends to stockholders
 
(22,848
)
 
(20,899
)
Acquisition of treasury stock
 
(3,887
)
 
(2,920
)
Net proceeds from stock purchase and compensation plans
 
6,016

 
3,554

Proceeds from borrowings
 
15,000

 

Excess tax benefits from share-based payment arrangements
 
1,498

 
1,024

Repayments of capital lease obligations
 
(3,517
)
 
(1,858
)
Net cash used in financing activities
 
(7,738
)
 
(21,099
)
Net (decrease) increase in cash
 
(8,846
)
 
2,308

Cash, beginning of year
 
23,959

 
193

Cash, end of period
 
$
15,113

 
2,501

The accompanying notes are an integral part of these unaudited interim consolidated financial statements.

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NOTES TO UNAUDITED INTERIM CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

NOTE 1. Basis of Presentation
As used herein, the "Company,” “we,” “us,” or “our” refers to Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (the "Parent"), and its subsidiaries, except as expressly indicated or unless the context otherwise requires. Our interim unaudited consolidated financial statements (“Financial Statements”) have been prepared by us in conformity with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”) and the rules and regulations of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) regarding interim financial reporting. The preparation of the Financial Statements in conformity with GAAP requires us to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported financial statement balances, as well as the disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities. Actual results could differ from those estimates. All significant intercompany accounts and transactions between the Parent and its subsidiaries are eliminated in consolidation.

Our Financial Statements reflect all adjustments that, in our opinion, are normal, recurring, and necessary for a fair presentation of our results of operations and financial condition. Our Financial Statements cover the third quarters ended September 30, 2015 (“Third Quarter 2015”) and September 30, 2014 (“Third Quarter 2014”) and the nine-month periods ended September 30, 2015 ("Nine Months 2015") and September 30, 2014 ("Nine Months 2014"). The Financial Statements do not include all of the information and disclosures required by GAAP and the SEC for audited annual financial statements. Results of operations for any interim period are not necessarily indicative of results for a full year. Consequently, our Financial Statements should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements contained in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014 (“2014 Annual Report”) filed with the SEC.

NOTE 2. Accounting Pronouncements 
In June 2014, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (“FASB”) issued Accounting Standards Update (“ASU”) 2014-12, Accounting for Share-Based Payments When the Terms of an Award Provide That a Performance Target Could Be Achieved after the Requisite Service Period (“ASU 2014-12”). ASU 2014-12 requires that performance targets that affect vesting and could be achieved after the requisite service period be treated as performance conditions. The effective date for ASU 2014-12 is for interim and annual periods beginning after December 15, 2015. The amendments in ASU 2014-12 may be applied either prospectively to all awards granted or modified after the effective date or retrospectively to all awards with performance targets that are outstanding as of the beginning of the earliest annual period presented and all modified awards thereafter. The adoption of ASU 2014-12 will not affect us, as we are currently recording expense consistent with the requirements of this accounting update.

In August 2014, the FASB issued ASU 2014-15, Disclosure of Uncertainties about an Entity’s Ability to Continue as a Going Concern (“ASU 2014-15”). ASU 2014-15 is intended to define management’s responsibility to evaluate whether there is substantial doubt about an entity’s ability to continue as a going concern and provide related footnote disclosures. ASU 2014-15 is effective for annual periods ending after December 15, 2016, and interim periods within annual periods beginning after December 15, 2016. Early application is permitted. As the requirements of this literature are disclosure only, ASU 2014-15 will not impact our financial condition or results of operations.

In February 2015, the FASB issued ASU 2015-02, Amendments to the Consolidation Analysis (“ASU 2015-02”). ASU 2015-02 affects the following areas: (i) limited partnerships and similar legal entities; (ii) the evaluation of fees paid to a decision maker or a service provider as a variable interest; (iii) the effect of fee arrangements on the primary beneficiary determination; (iv) the effect of related parties on the primary beneficiary determination; and (v) certain investment funds. ASU 2015-02 is effective for interim and annual reporting periods beginning after December 15, 2015. The amendments in ASU 2015-02 may be applied either retrospectively or by applying a modified retrospective approach, which would include recording a cumulative-effect adjustment to equity as of the beginning of the fiscal year of adoption. While we are currently evaluating ASU 2015-02, we do not expect a material impact on our financial condition or results of operations from the adoption of this guidance.

In April 2015, the FASB issued ASU 2015-03, Simplifying the Presentation of Debt Issuance Costs (“ASU 2015-03”). ASU 2015-03 requires debt issuance costs to be netted against the related debt liability in the balance sheet rather than presented as a separate asset. However, ASU 2015-03 does not address the presentation or subsequent measurement of debt issuance costs related to line-of-credit arrangements. Therefore, in August 2015, the FASB issued ASU 2015-15, Presentation and Subsequent Measurement of Debt Issuance Costs Associated with Line-of-Credit Arrangements - Amendments to SEC Paragraphs Pursuant to Staff Announcement at June 18, 2015 EITF Meeting (“ASU 2015-15”). ASU 2015-15 clarifies that, in the absence of authoritative guidance on line-of-credit arrangements within ASU 2015-03, the SEC would not object to the deferral and presentation of debt issuance costs as an asset and the subsequent amortization of the deferred costs over the term of the line-of-credit arrangement.


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ASU 2015-03 is effective for interim and annual reporting periods beginning after December 15, 2015, with early adoption permitted, and should be applied on a retrospective basis. As the requirement of ASU 2015-03 is disclosure only, the adoption of this guidance will not impact our financial condition or results of operations.

ASU 2015-15 is effective upon adoption of ASU 2015-03. While we are currently evaluating ASU 2015-15, we do not expect a material impact on our financial condition or results of operations from the adoption of this guidance.

In April 2015, the FASB issued ASU 2015-05, Customer's Accounting for Fees Paid in a Cloud Computing Arrangement (“ASU 2015-05”). ASU 2015-05 provides guidance to customers with cloud computing arrangements that include a software license. If a cloud computing arrangement includes a software license, the customer should account for the software license element of the arrangement consistent with the acquisition of other software licenses. If a cloud computing arrangement does not include a software license, the customer should account for the arrangement as a service contract. ASU 2015-05 is effective for interim and annual reporting periods beginning after December 15, 2015. Early adoption is permitted. The amendments in ASU 2015-05 can be adopted either prospectively, to all arrangements entered into or materially modified after the effective date, or retrospectively. While we are currently evaluating ASU 2015-05, we do not expect a material impact on our financial condition or results of operations from the adoption of this guidance.

In May 2015, the FASB issued ASU 2015-07, Disclosures for Investments in Certain Entities That Calculate Net Asset Value per Share (or Its Equivalent) (“ASU 2015-07”). ASU 2015-07 provides guidance that investments for which the practical expedient is used to measure fair value at net asset value per share ("NAV") must be removed from the fair value hierarchy. Instead, those investments must be included as a reconciling line item so that the total fair value amount of investments in the disclosure is consistent with the amount on the balance sheet. ASU 2015-07 also includes disclosure requirements for investments for which the NAV practical expedient was used to determine fair value. ASU 2015-07 is effective for interim and annual reporting periods beginning after December 15, 2015. Early adoption is permitted. The amendments in ASU 2015-07 should be applied retrospectively to all periods presented. As the requirements of this literature are disclosure only, the application of this guidance will not impact our financial condition or results of operations.

In May 2015, the FASB issued ASU 2015-09, Disclosures about Short-Duration Contracts (“ASU 2015-09”). ASU 2015-09 requires companies that issue short duration contracts to disclose additional information, including: (i) incurred and paid claims development tables; (ii) frequency and severity of claims; and (iii) information about material changes in judgments made in calculating the liability for unpaid claim adjustment expenses, including reasons for the change and the effects on the financial statements. ASU 2015-09 is effective for annual periods beginning after December 15, 2015, and interim periods within annual periods beginning after December 15, 2016. The amendments in ASU 2015-09 should be applied retrospectively by providing comparative disclosures for each period presented, except for those requirements that apply only to the current period. As the requirements of this literature are disclosure only, the application of this guidance will not impact our financial condition or results of operations.

NOTE 3. Statements of Cash Flow
Supplemental cash flow information is as follows:
 
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
($ in thousands)
 
2015
 
2014
Cash paid during the period for:
 
 

 
 

Interest
 
$
13,843

 
14,089

Federal income tax
 
18,500

 
4,699

 
 
 
 
 
Non-cash items:
 
 
 
 
Tax-free exchange of fixed income securities, available-for-sale ("AFS")
 
35,425

 
14,954

Tax-free exchange of fixed income securities, held-to-maturity ("HTM")
 
10,045

 
4,288

Corporate actions related to equity securities, AFS1
 
4,239

 
334

Assets acquired under capital lease arrangements
 
6,933

 
4,853

1Examples of such corporate actions include non-cash acquisitions and stock splits.

Included in "Other assets" on the Consolidated Balance Sheet was $9.9 million at September 30, 2015 and $8.1 million at September 30, 2014 of cash received from the National Flood Insurance Program ("NFIP"), which is restricted to pay flood claims under the Write Your Own ("WYO") program. 

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NOTE 4. Investments
(a) The amortized cost, net unrealized gains and losses, carrying value, unrecognized holding gains and losses, and fair value of HTM fixed income securities as of September 30, 2015 and December 31, 2014 were as follows:
September 30, 2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
($ in thousands)
 
Amortized
Cost
 
Net
 Unrealized Gains
 (Losses)
 
Carrying
Value
 
Unrecognized
 Holding
Gains
 
Unrecognized Holding
 Losses
 
Fair
Value
Obligations of states and political subdivisions
 
$
205,443

 
1,108

 
206,551

 
7,423

 

 
213,974

Corporate securities
 
18,147

 
(241
)
 
17,906

 
2,467

 

 
20,373

Asset-backed securities (“ABS”)
 
1,209

 
(157
)
 
1,052

 
158

 

 
1,210

Commercial mortgage-backed securities (“CMBS”)
 
4,656

 
(296
)
 
4,360

 
471

 

 
4,831

Total HTM fixed income securities
 
$
229,455

 
414

 
229,869

 
10,519

 

 
240,388

December 31, 2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
($ in thousands)
 
Amortized
Cost
 
Net
 Unrealized Gains
 (Losses)
 
Carrying
Value
 
Unrecognized
 Holding
Gains
 
Unrecognized Holding
 Losses
 
Fair
Value
Foreign government
 
$
5,292

 
47

 
5,339

 
55

 

 
5,394

Obligations of states and political subdivisions
 
285,301

 
2,071

 
287,372

 
11,760

 

 
299,132

Corporate securities
 
18,899

 
(273
)
 
18,626

 
2,796

 

 
21,422

ABS
 
2,818

 
(455
)
 
2,363

 
460

 

 
2,823

CMBS
 
4,869

 
(432
)
 
4,437

 
753

 

 
5,190

Total HTM fixed income securities
 
$
317,179

 
958

 
318,137

 
15,824

 

 
333,961

 
Unrecognized holding gains and losses of HTM securities are not reflected in the Financial Statements, as they represent fair value fluctuations from the later of: (i) the date a security is designated as HTM; or (ii) the date that an other-than-temporary impairment (“OTTI”) charge is recognized on an HTM security, through the date of the balance sheet. Our HTM securities had an average duration of 1.5 years as of September 30, 2015.



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(b) The cost/amortized cost, unrealized gains and losses, and fair value of AFS securities as of September 30, 2015 and December 31, 2014 were as follows:
September 30, 2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
($ in thousands)
 
Cost/
Amortized
Cost
 
Unrealized
Gains
 
Unrealized
Losses
 
Fair
Value
AFS fixed income securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. government and government agencies
 
$
109,062

 
6,069

 
(1
)
 
115,130

Foreign government
 
19,030

 
657

 

 
19,687

Obligations of states and political subdivisions
 
1,303,188

 
35,552

 
(545
)
 
1,338,195

Corporate securities
 
1,859,834

 
35,222

 
(8,882
)
 
1,886,174

ABS
 
255,716

 
1,312

 
(105
)
 
256,923

CMBS1
 
220,009

 
2,450

 
(457
)
 
222,002

Residential mortgage-backed
securities (“RMBS”)2
 
506,932

 
7,400

 
(1,397
)
 
512,935

Total AFS fixed income securities
 
4,273,771

 
88,662

 
(11,387
)
 
4,351,046

AFS equity securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Common stock
 
208,995

 
13,542

 
(12,340
)
 
210,197

Preferred stock
 
11,825

 
46

 
(117
)
 
11,754

Total AFS equity securities
 
220,820

 
13,588

 
(12,457
)
 
221,951

Total AFS securities
 
$
4,494,591

 
102,250

 
(23,844
)
 
4,572,997

 
December 31, 2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
($ in thousands)
 
Cost/
Amortized
Cost
 
Unrealized
Gains
 
Unrealized
Losses
 
Fair
Value
AFS fixed income securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. government and government agencies
 
$
116,666

 
7,592

 
(128
)
 
124,130

Foreign government
 
27,035

 
796

 

 
27,831

Obligations of states and political subdivisions
 
1,208,776

 
38,217

 
(729
)
 
1,246,264

Corporate securities
 
1,763,427

 
42,188

 
(5,809
)
 
1,799,806

ABS
 
176,837

 
760

 
(373
)
 
177,224

CMBS1
 
177,932

 
2,438

 
(777
)
 
179,593

RMBS2
 
505,113

 
8,587

 
(2,426
)
 
511,274

Total AFS fixed income securities
 
3,975,786

 
100,578

 
(10,242
)
 
4,066,122

AFS equity securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Common stock
 
159,011

 
32,725

 
(336
)
 
191,400

Total AFS equity securities
 
159,011

 
32,725

 
(336
)
 
191,400

Total AFS securities
 
$
4,134,797

 
133,303

 
(10,578
)
 
4,257,522


1 CMBS includes government guaranteed agency securities with a fair value of $7.4 million at September 30, 2015 and $13.2 million at December 31, 2014.
2 RMBS includes government guaranteed agency securities with a fair value of $22.5 million at September 30, 2015 and $32.4 million at December 31, 2014.

Unrealized gains and losses of AFS securities represent fair value fluctuations from the later of: (i) the date a security is designated as AFS; or (ii) the date that an OTTI charge is recognized on an AFS security, through the date of the balance sheet. These unrealized gains and losses are recorded in Accumulated other comprehensive (loss) income ("AOCI") on the Consolidated Balance Sheets.
  

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(c) The following tables summarize, for all securities in a net unrealized/unrecognized loss position at September 30, 2015 and December 31, 2014, the fair value and pre-tax net unrealized/unrecognized loss by asset class and by length of time those securities have been in a net loss position:
September 30, 2015
 
Less than 12 months
 
12 months or longer
($ in thousands)
 
Fair Value
 
Unrealized
Losses1
 
Fair Value
 
Unrealized
Losses1
AFS fixed income securities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

U.S. government and government agencies
 
$

 

 
399

 
(1
)
Obligations of states and political subdivisions
 
96,861

 
(545
)
 

 

Corporate securities
 
430,481

 
(7,187
)
 
50,552

 
(1,695
)
ABS
 
55,856

 
(71
)
 
12,530

 
(34
)
CMBS
 
59,004

 
(367
)
 
15,561

 
(90
)
RMBS
 
95,254

 
(457
)
 
65,417

 
(940
)
Total AFS fixed income securities
 
737,456

 
(8,627
)
 
144,459

 
(2,760
)
AFS equity securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Common stock
 
133,601

 
(12,340
)
 

 

Preferred stock
 
8,562

 
(117
)
 

 

Total AFS equity securities
 
142,163

 
(12,457
)
 

 

Subtotal
 
$
879,619

 
(21,084
)
 
144,459

 
(2,760
)

 
 
Less than 12 months
 
12 months or longer
($ in thousands)
 
Fair
Value
 
Unrealized
Losses1
 
Unrecognized
Gains2
 
Fair
Value
 
Unrealized
Losses1
 
Unrecognized
Gains2
HTM securities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

   ABS
 
$

 

 

 
942

 
(157
)
 
153

Subtotal
 
$

 

 

 
942

 
(157
)
 
153

Total AFS and HTM
 
$
879,619

 
(21,084
)
 

 
145,401

 
(2,917
)
 
153


December 31, 2014
 
Less than 12 months
 
12 months or longer
($ in thousands)
 
Fair
Value
 
Unrealized
Losses1
 
Fair Value
 
Unrealized
Losses1
AFS fixed income securities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

U.S. government and government agencies
 
$
7,567

 
(13
)
 
10,866

 
(115
)
Obligations of states and political subdivisions
 
47,510

 
(105
)
 
64,018

 
(624
)
Corporate securities
 
276,648

 
(1,734
)
 
153,613

 
(4,075
)
ABS
 
113,202

 
(178
)
 
15,618

 
(195
)
CMBS
 
12,799

 
(34
)
 
59,219

 
(743
)
RMBS
 
3,399

 
(8
)
 
138,724

 
(2,418
)
Total AFS fixed income securities
 
461,125

 
(2,072
)
 
442,058

 
(8,170
)
AFS equity securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Common stock
 
5,262

 
(336
)
 

 

Total AFS equity securities
 
5,262

 
(336
)
 

 

Subtotal
 
$
466,387

 
(2,408
)
 
442,058

 
(8,170
)
 

10

Table of Contents

 
 
Less than 12 months
 
12 months or longer
($ in thousands)
 
Fair
Value
 
Unrealized
Losses1
 
Unrecognized
Gains2
 
Fair
Value
 
Unrealized
Losses1
 
Unrecognized
Gains2
HTM securities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

  Obligations of states and political subdivisions
 
$
196

 
(3
)
 
1

 

 

 

  ABS
 

 

 

 
2,235

 
(455
)
 
439

Subtotal
 
196

 
(3
)
 
1

 
2,235

 
(455
)
 
439

Total AFS and HTM
 
$
466,583

 
(2,411
)
 
1

 
444,293

 
(8,625
)
 
439

 1 Gross unrealized losses include non-OTTI unrealized amounts and OTTI losses recognized in AOCI.  In addition, this column includes remaining unrealized gain or loss amounts on securities that were transferred to an HTM designation in the first quarter of 2009 for those securities that are in a net unrealized/unrecognized loss position.
2 Unrecognized gains represent fair value fluctuations from the later of:  (i) the date a security is designated as HTM; or (ii) the date that an OTTI charge is recognized on an HTM security.

The table below provides our net unrealized/unrecognized loss positions by impairment severity as of September 30, 2015 compared with December 31, 2014:
($ in thousands)
 
 
September 30, 2015
 
December 31, 2014
Number of
Issues
% of Market/Book
Unrealized/
Unrecognized Loss
 
Number of
Issues
% of Market/Book
Unrealized/
Unrecognized Loss
389

80% - 99%
$
21,841

 
350

80% - 99%
$
10,596

4

60% - 79%
2,007

 

60% - 79%


40% - 59%

 

40% - 59%


20% - 39%

 

20% - 39%


0% - 19%

 

0% - 19%

 

 
$
23,848

 
 

 
$
10,596

 
We do not intend to sell any of the securities in the tables above, nor do we believe we will be required to sell any of these securities. We have also reviewed these securities under our OTTI policy, as described in Note 2. “Summary of Significant Accounting Policies” within Item 8. “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.” of our 2014 Annual Report, and have concluded that they are temporarily impaired. This conclusion reflects our current judgment as to the financial position and future prospects of the entity that issued the investment security and underlying collateral. If our judgment about an individual security changes in the future, we may ultimately record a credit loss after having originally concluded that one did not exist, which could have a material impact on our net income and financial position in future periods.
 

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(d) Fixed income securities at September 30, 2015, by contractual maturity, are shown below. Mortgage-backed securities ("MBS") are included in the maturity tables using the estimated average life of each security. Expected maturities may differ from contractual maturities because issuers may have the right to call or prepay obligations, with or without call or prepayment penalties.
 
Listed below are the contractual maturities of HTM fixed income securities at September 30, 2015:
($ in thousands)
 
Carrying Value
 
Fair Value
Due in one year or less
 
$
102,507

 
103,945

Due after one year through five years
 
116,833

 
123,960

Due after five years through 10 years
 
10,529

 
12,483

Total HTM fixed income securities
 
$
229,869

 
240,388

 
Listed below are the contractual maturities of AFS fixed income securities at September 30, 2015:
($ in thousands)
 
Fair Value
Due in one year or less
 
$
501,398

Due after one year through five years
 
2,180,671

Due after five years through 10 years
 
1,589,038

Due after 10 years
 
79,939

Total AFS fixed income securities
 
$
4,351,046

  
(e) The following table summarizes our other investment portfolio by strategy and the remaining commitment amount associated with each strategy:
Other Investments
 
Carrying Value
 
September 30, 2015
($ in thousands)
 
September 30,
2015
 
December 31,
2014
 
Remaining Commitment
Alternative Investments
 
 

 
 

 
 

  Secondary private equity
 
$
17,503

 
21,807

 
7,095

  Private equity
 
15,792

 
20,126

 
23,826

  Energy/power generation
 
11,643

 
14,445

 
16,857

  Real estate
 
8,854

 
11,452

 
9,919

  Mezzanine financing
 
6,948

 
9,853

 
13,383

  Distressed debt
 
6,889

 
8,679

 
3,048

  Venture capital
 
6,539

 
6,606

 
150

Total alternative investments
 
74,168

 
92,968

 
74,278

Other securities
 
10,978

 
6,235

 
2,269

Total other investments
 
$
85,146

 
99,203

 
76,547

 
For a full description of our seven alternative investment strategies, as well as information regarding redemption, restrictions, and fund liquidations, refer to Note 5. “Investments” in Item 8. “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.” of our 2014 Annual Report.
 
The following table sets forth gross summarized financial information for our other investments portfolio, including the portion not owned by us. The investments are carried under the equity method of accounting. The last line of the table below reflects our share of the aggregate income, which is the portion included in our Financial Statements. As the majority of these investments report results to us on a one quarter lag, the summarized financial statement information for the three and nine-month periods ended June 30 is as follows:
Income Statement Information
 
Quarter ended June 30,
 
Nine months ended June 30,
($ in millions)
 
2015

2014
 
2015
 
2014
Net investment income
 
$
44.1


81.3

 
$
139.6

 
167.0

Realized gains (losses)
 
385.2


(26.1
)
 
977.7

 
171.5

Net change in unrealized (depreciation) appreciation
 
(222.2
)

628.6

 
(1,089.0
)
 
1,471.0

Net income
 
$
207.1


683.8

 
$
28.3

 
1,809.5

Selective’s insurance subsidiaries’ other investments income (loss)
 
$
1.3


3.9

 
$
(0.8
)
 
12.7


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(f) We have pledged certain AFS fixed income securities as collateral related to our: (i) outstanding borrowing of $60 million with the Federal Home Loan Bank of Indianapolis ("FHLBI"); and (ii) reinsurance obligations related to our 2011 acquisition of our excess and surplus lines ("E&S") book of business. In addition, certain securities were on deposit with various state and regulatory agencies to comply with insurance laws. We retain all rights regarding all securities pledged as collateral.

The following table summarizes the market value of these securities at September 30, 2015:
($ in millions)
 
FHLBI Collateral
 
Reinsurance Collateral
 
State and Regulatory Deposits
 
Total
U.S. government and government agencies
 
$
7.7

 

 
24.4

 
32.1

Obligations of states and political subdivisions
 

 
5.0

 

 
5.0

Corporate securities
 

 
4.8

 

 
4.8

CMBS
 
1.4

 

 

 
1.4

RMBS
 
55.5

 
1.9

 

 
57.4

Total pledged as collateral
 
$
64.6

 
11.7


24.4


100.7

 
(g) The Company did not have exposure to any credit concentration risk of a single issuer greater than 10% of the Company's stockholders' equity, other than certain U.S. government agencies, as of September 30, 2015 or December 31, 2014.

(h) The components of pre-tax net investment income earned for the periods indicated were as follows:
 
 
Quarter ended September 30,
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
($ in thousands)
 
2015
 
2014
 
2015
 
2014
Fixed income securities
 
$
30,601


30,706

 
$
92,227

 
95,515

Equity securities
 
2,370


1,909

 
6,546

 
5,094

Short-term investments
 
24


15

 
72

 
48

Other investments
 
1,337


3,906

 
(781
)
 
12,677

Investment expenses
 
(2,271
)

(2,244
)
 
(6,856
)
 
(6,734
)
Net investment income earned
 
$
32,061

 
34,292

 
$
91,208

 
106,600


(i) The following tables summarize OTTI by asset type for the periods indicated. We had no OTTI charges in Third Quarter 2014:
Third Quarter 2015
 
Gross 
 
Included in Other Comprehensive Income ("OCI")
 
Recognized in
Earnings
($ in thousands) 
 
 
 
AFS fixed income securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Corporate securities
 
$
253

 

 
253

Total AFS fixed income securities
 
253

 

 
253

AFS equity securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Common stock
 
1,029

 

 
1,029

Total AFS equity securities
 
1,029

 

 
1,029

Total OTTI losses
 
$
1,282

 

 
1,282





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Table of Contents

Nine Months 2015
 
Gross 
 
Included in OCI
 
Recognized in
Earnings
($ in thousands) 
 
 
 
AFS fixed income securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
   Corporate securities
 
$
1,445

 

 
1,445

   RMBS
 
1

 

 
1

Total AFS fixed income securities
 
1,446

 

 
1,446

AFS equity securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Common stock
 
6,201

 

 
6,201

Preferred stock
 
180

 

 
180

Total AFS equity securities
 
6,381

 

 
6,381

Total OTTI losses
 
$
7,827

 

 
7,827


Nine Months 2014
 
Gross
 
Included in OCI
 
Recognized in Earnings
($ in thousands)
 
 
 
AFS equity securities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

    Common stock
 
$
1,382

 

 
1,382

Total OTTI losses
 
$
1,382

 

 
1,382


For a discussion of our evaluation for OTTI of fixed income securities, short-term investments, equity securities, and other investments, refer to Note 2. "Summary of Significant Accounting Policies" in Item 8. "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data." of our 2014 Annual Report.

The following tables set forth, for the periods indicated, credit loss impairments on fixed income securities for which a portion of the OTTI charge was recognized in OCI, and the corresponding changes in such amounts:
 
 
Quarter ended September 30,
($ in thousands)
 
2015
 
2014
Balance, beginning of period
 
$
1,013

 
5,534

Addition for the amount related to credit loss for which an OTTI was not previously recognized
 

 

Reductions for securities sold during the period
 

 
(90
)
Reductions for securities for which the amount previously recognized in OCI was recognized in earnings because of intention or potential requirement to sell before recovery of amortized cost
 

 

Additional increases to the amount related to credit loss for which an OTTI was previously recognized
 

 

Accretion of credit loss impairments previously recognized due to an increase in cash flows expected to be collected
 

 

Balance, end of period
 
$
1,013

 
5,444

 
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
($ in thousands)
 
2015
 
2014
Balance, beginning of period
 
$
5,444

 
7,488

Addition for the amount related to credit loss for which an OTTI was not previously recognized
 

 

Reductions for securities sold during the period
 
(4,431
)
 
(2,044
)
Reductions for securities for which the amount previously recognized in OCI was recognized in earnings because of intention or potential requirement to sell before recovery of amortized cost
 

 

Additional increases to the amount related to credit loss for which an OTTI was previously recognized
 

 

Accretion of credit loss impairments previously recognized due to an increase in cash flows expected to be collected
 

 

Balance, end of period
 
$
1,013

 
5,444




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Table of Contents

(j) The components of net realized gains, excluding OTTI charges, for the periods indicated were as follows:
 
 
Quarter ended September 30,
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
($ in thousands)
 
2015
 
2014
 
2015
 
2014
HTM fixed income securities
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gains
 
$
3

 

 
5

 
3

Losses
 

 
(4
)
 
(1
)
 
(18
)
AFS fixed income securities
 
 

 
 

 


 


Gains
 
169

 
695

 
2,158

 
1,633

Losses
 

 
(29
)
 
(130
)
 
(172
)
AFS equity securities
 
 

 
 

 


 


Gains
 
1,419

 
14,576

 
23,567

 
27,255

Losses
 
(1
)
 
(8
)
 
(1,347
)
 
(332
)
Other investments
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gains
 

 
1

 

 
1

      Losses
 



 
(654
)
 

Total net realized gains (excluding OTTI charges)
 
$
1,590


15,231

 
23,598

 
28,370

 
Realized gains and losses on the sale of investments are determined on the basis of the cost of the specific investments sold. Proceeds from the sale of AFS securities were $12.7 million and $170.6 million in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2015, respectively. The $23.6 million in net realized gains for Nine Months 2015 was primarily related to the sale of AFS equity securities due to a change in our dividend equity strategy from a quantitative, model-driven stock selection strategy to a fundamentally-based stock selection approach that incorporates an assessment of the sustainability and growth rate of a company’s dividends and future cash flow.

The $15.2 million and $28.4 million in net realized gains in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2014, respectively, were primarily related to the sale of AFS equity securities due to the quantitative rebalancing of our dividend yield strategy holdings within our equity portfolio.

NOTE 5. Indebtedness
Of our ten insurance subsidiaries ("Insurance Subsidiaries"), we have two domiciled in Indiana ("Indiana Subsidiaries") that are members of the FHLBI. In January 2015, the Indiana Subsidiaries borrowed $15 million in the aggregate from the FHLBI for general corporate purposes. The unpaid principal amount accrues interest of 0.63%, which is paid on the 15th of every month. The principal amount is due on July 22, 2016. For a summary of the Indiana Subsidiaries' borrowings from the FHLBI, refer to Note 10. "Indebtedness" in Item 8. "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data." of our 2014 Annual Report.
 

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Table of Contents


NOTE 6. Fair Value Measurements
The following table presents the carrying amounts and estimated fair values of our financial instruments as of September 30, 2015 and December 31, 2014:
 
 
September 30, 2015
 
December 31, 2014
($ in thousands)
 
Carrying Amount
 
Fair
Value
 
Carrying Amount
 
Fair
Value
Financial Assets
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Fixed income securities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

HTM
 
$
229,869

 
240,388

 
318,137

 
333,961

AFS
 
4,351,046

 
4,351,046

 
4,066,122

 
4,066,122

Equity securities, AFS
 
221,951

 
221,951

 
191,400

 
191,400

Short-term investments
 
125,855

 
125,855

 
131,972

 
131,972

Financial Liabilities
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Notes payable:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

0.63% borrowings from FHLBI
 
15,000

 
14,995

 

 

1.25% borrowings from FHLBI
 
45,000

 
45,277

 
45,000

 
45,244

7.25% Senior Notes
 
49,898

 
57,929

 
49,896

 
59,181

6.70% Senior Notes
 
99,411

 
112,387

 
99,401

 
114,845

5.875% Senior Notes
 
185,000

 
187,960

 
185,000

 
185,000

Total notes payable
 
$
394,309

 
418,548

 
379,297

 
404,270

 
The fair values of our financial assets and liabilities are generated using various valuation techniques and are placed into the fair value hierarchy considering the following: (i) the highest priority is given to quoted prices in active markets for identical assets (Level 1); (ii) the next highest priority is given to quoted prices in markets that are not active or inputs that are observable either directly or indirectly, including quoted prices for similar assets in markets that are not active and other inputs that can be derived principally from, or corroborated by, observable market data for substantially the full term of the assets (Level 2); and (iii) the lowest priority is given to unobservable inputs supported by little or no market activity and that reflect our assumptions about the exit price, including assumptions that market participants would use in pricing the asset (Level 3). An asset or liability's classification within the fair value hierarchy is based on the lowest level of significant input to its valuation. Transfers between levels in the fair value hierarchy are recognized at the end of the reporting period.

For a discussion of the techniques used to value our financial assets and liabilities, refer to Note 2. "Summary of Significant Accounting Policies" in Item 8. "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data." of our 2014 Annual Report.


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Table of Contents

The following tables provide quantitative disclosures of our financial assets that were measured at fair value at September 30, 2015 and December 31, 2014:
September 30, 2015
 
 
 
Fair Value Measurements Using
($ in thousands)
 
Assets
 Measured at
 Fair Value
 at 9/30/2015
 
Quoted Prices in
Active Markets for
Identical Assets/
Liabilities (Level 1)1
 
Significant Other
 Observable
Inputs
 (Level 2)1
 
Significant Unobservable
 Inputs
 (Level 3)
Description
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Measured on a recurring basis:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

AFS fixed income securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. government and government agencies
 
$
115,130

 
51,963

 
63,167

 

Foreign government
 
19,687

 

 
19,687

 

Obligations of states and political subdivisions
 
1,338,195

 

 
1,338,195

 

Corporate securities
 
1,886,174

 

 
1,886,174

 

ABS
 
256,923

 

 
256,923

 

CMBS
 
222,002

 

 
222,002

 

RMBS
 
512,935

 

 
512,935

 

Total AFS fixed income securities
 
4,351,046

 
51,963

 
4,299,083

 

AFS equity securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Common stock
 
210,197

 
207,412

 

 
2,785

Preferred stock
 
11,754

 
11,754

 

 

Total AFS equity securities
 
221,951

 
219,166

 

 
2,785

Total AFS securities
 
4,572,997

 
271,129

 
4,299,083

 
2,785

Short-term investments
 
125,855

 
125,855

 

 

Total assets measured at fair value
 
$
4,698,852

 
396,984

 
4,299,083


2,785

1
There were no transfers of securities between Level 1 and Level 2.

December 31, 2014
 
 
 
Fair Value Measurements Using
($ in thousands)
 
Assets
 Measured at
Fair Value
at 12/31/14
 
Quoted Prices in
 Active Markets for
Identical Assets/Liabilities
(Level 1)1
 
Significant
Other Observable
Inputs
 (Level 2)1
 
Significant Unobservable
Inputs
 (Level 3)
Description
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Measured on a recurring basis:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

AFS fixed income securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. government and government agencies
 
$
124,130

 
53,199

 
70,931

 

Foreign government
 
27,831

 

 
27,831

 

Obligations of states and political subdivisions
 
1,246,264

 

 
1,246,264

 

Corporate securities
 
1,799,806

 

 
1,799,806

 

ABS
 
177,224

 

 
177,224

 

CMBS
 
179,593

 

 
179,593

 

RMBS
 
511,274

 

 
511,274

 

Total AFS fixed income securities
 
4,066,122

 
53,199

 
4,012,923

 

AFS equity securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Common stock
 
191,400

 
188,500

 

 
2,900

Total AFS equity securities
 
191,400

 
188,500

 

 
2,900

Total AFS securities
 
4,257,522

 
241,699

 
4,012,923

 
2,900

Short-term investments
 
131,972

 
131,972

 

 

Total assets measured at fair value
 
$
4,389,494

 
373,671

 
4,012,923

 
2,900

1 
There were no transfers of securities between Level 1 and Level 2.

The following table provides a summary of the changes in the fair value of securities measured using Level 3 inputs and related
quantitative information for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2015.

17

Table of Contents

September 30, 2015
Common Stock
($ in thousands)
Fair value, December 31, 2014
$
2,900

Total net (losses) gains for the period included in:
 
OCI

Net income

Purchases

Sales
(115
)
Issuances

Settlements

Transfers into Level 3

Transfers out of Level 3

Fair value, September 30, 2015
$
2,785


The $2.9 million in fair value of securities measured using Level 3 prices remained unchanged during the full year 2014. The price for these securities, which were measured using Level 3 inputs at September 30, 2015 and December 31, 2014, was obtained through statements provided by the issuer, which we review for reasonableness.

The following tables provide quantitative information regarding our financial assets and liabilities that were disclosed at fair value at September 30, 2015 and December 31, 2014:
September 30, 2015
 
 
 
Fair Value Measurements Using
($ in thousands)
 
Assets/
Liabilities
Disclosed at
Fair Value at 9/30/2015
 
Quoted Prices in
 Active Markets for
 Identical Assets/
Liabilities
(Level 1)
 
Significant Other
Observable Inputs
(Level 2)
 
Significant
Unobservable
Inputs
(Level 3)
Financial Assets
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

HTM:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Obligations of states and political subdivisions
 
$
213,974

 

 
213,974

 

Corporate securities
 
20,373

 

 
20,373

 

ABS
 
1,210

 

 
1,210

 

CMBS
 
4,831

 

 
4,831

 

Total HTM fixed income securities
 
$
240,388

 

 
240,388

 

Financial Liabilities
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Notes payable:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

0.63% borrowings from FHLBI
 
$
14,995

 

 
14,995

 

1.25% borrowings from FHLBI
 
45,277

 

 
45,277

 

7.25% Senior Notes
 
57,929

 

 
57,929

 

6.70% Senior Notes
 
112,387

 

 
112,387

 

5.875% Senior Notes
 
187,960

 
187,960

 

 

Total notes payable
 
$
418,548

 
187,960

 
230,588

 



18

Table of Contents

December 31, 2014
 
 
 
Fair Value Measurements Using
($ in thousands)
 
Assets/
Liabilities
Disclosed at
Fair Value at 12/31/2014
 
Quoted Prices in
 Active Markets for
 Identical Assets/
Liabilities
(Level 1)
 
Significant Other
Observable Inputs
(Level 2)
 
Significant
Unobservable
Inputs
(Level 3)
Financial Assets
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

HTM:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 
Foreign government
 
$
5,394

 

 
5,394

 

Obligations of states and political subdivisions
 
299,132

 

 
299,132

 

Corporate securities
 
21,422

 

 
21,422

 

ABS
 
2,823

 

 
2,823

 

CMBS
 
5,190

 

 
5,190

 

Total HTM fixed income securities
 
$
333,961

 

 
333,961

 

Financial Liabilities
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Notes payable:
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
1.25% borrowings from FHLBI
 
$
45,244

 

 
45,244

 

7.25% Senior Notes
 
59,181

 

 
59,181

 

6.70% Senior Notes
 
114,845

 

 
114,845

 

5.875% Senior Notes
 
185,000

 
185,000

 

 

Total notes payable
 
$
404,270

 
185,000

 
219,270

 


NOTE 7. Reinsurance
The following table contains a listing of direct, assumed, and ceded reinsurance amounts for premiums written, premiums earned, and loss and loss expenses incurred for the periods indicated. For more information concerning reinsurance, refer to
Note 8. “Reinsurance” in Item 8. “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.” of our 2014 Annual Report.
 
 
Quarter ended September 30,
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
($ in thousands)
 
2015
 
2014
 
2015
 
2014
Premiums written:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Direct
 
$
631,429

 
592,858

 
$
1,851,620

 
1,723,063

Assumed
 
6,099

 
5,780

 
17,140

 
19,467

Ceded
 
(92,503
)
 
(103,517
)
 
(273,514
)
 
(290,836
)
Net
 
$
545,025

 
495,121

 
$
1,595,246

 
1,451,694

Premiums earned:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Direct
 
$
590,716

 
548,734

 
$
1,728,865

 
1,630,347

Assumed
 
5,830

 
6,789

 
16,831

 
27,359

Ceded
 
(89,156
)
 
(92,884
)
 
(271,874
)
 
(274,947
)
Net
 
$
507,390

 
462,639

 
$
1,473,822

 
1,382,759

Loss and loss expense incurred:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Direct
 
$
306,635

 
304,525

 
$
935,529

 
995,581

Assumed
 
4,224

 
5,362

 
13,114

 
20,218

Ceded
 
(25,698
)
 
(38,955
)
 
(86,922
)
 
(126,526
)
Net
 
$
285,161

 
270,932

 
$
861,721

 
889,273

 
Ceded premiums and losses related to our participation in the NFIP, under which 100% of our flood premiums, losses, and loss expenses are ceded to the NFIP, are as follows:
Ceded to NFIP
 
Quarter ended September 30,
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
($ in thousands)
 
2015
 
2014
 
2015
 
2014
Ceded premiums written
 
$
(62,463
)
 
(69,922
)
 
$
(178,784
)
 
(193,000
)
Ceded premiums earned
 
(58,340
)
 
(60,761
)
 
(176,119
)
 
(178,260
)
Ceded loss and loss expense incurred
 
(15,382
)
 
(14,008
)
 
(36,315
)
 
(48,099
)

19

Table of Contents


NOTE 8. Segment Information
Selective Insurance Group, Inc., through its Insurance Subsidiaries, offers property and casualty insurance products in the standard and E&S marketplaces. We classify our business into four reportable segments, which are as follows:

Standard Commercial Lines - comprised of insurance products and services provided in the standard marketplace to
commercial enterprises, which are typically businesses, non-profit organizations, and local government agencies.

Standard Personal Lines - comprised of insurance products and services, including flood insurance coverage, provided primarily to individuals acquiring coverage in the standard marketplace.

E&S Lines - comprised of insurance products and services provided to customers who have not obtained coverage in
the standard marketplace.

Investments - invests the premiums collected by our Standard Commercial Lines, Standard Personal Lines, and E&S
Lines, as well as our earnings and amounts generated through our capital management strategies, which may include the issuance of debt and equity securities.

In the fourth quarter of 2014, we revised our reporting segments from our previously-reported Standard Insurance Operations segment to Standard Commercial Lines and Standard Personal Lines. For information regarding this change, see Note 11. "Segment Information" in Item 8. "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data." of our 2014 Annual Report.

In computing the results of each segment, we do not make adjustments for interest expense or net general corporate expenses. While we do not fully allocate taxes to all segments, we do allocate taxes to our Investments segment as we manage that segment on after-tax results. We do not maintain separate investment portfolios for the segments and therefore, do not allocate assets to the segments.

In the first quarter of 2014, we sold the renewal rights to our $37 million self-insured group, or "SIG," book of business within the Standard Commercial Lines segment. We decided to opportunistically sell this small and specialized book of pooled business as a significant portion of the business was produced outside of our standard lines footprint, and proved difficult to grow. As this was a renewal rights sale, we continued to service policies that were in force at the date of the sale. We continue to remain active in the municipal and public school marketplace for individual risks that procure traditional insurance programs rather than pooling arrangements. The proceeds from this sale, which amounted to $8 million, are included in "Miscellaneous income" within the table below as a component of Standard Commercial Lines revenue for Nine Months 2014.

The following summaries present revenues (net investment income and net realized gains on investments in the case of the Investments segment) and pre-tax income for the individual segments:

20

Table of Contents

Revenue by Segment
 
Quarter ended September 30,
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
($ in thousands)
 
2015
 
2014
 
2015
 
2014
Standard Commercial Lines:
 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 
Net premiums earned:
 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 
Commercial automobile
 
$
90,758

 
83,536

 
265,771

 
249,224

Workers compensation
 
74,560

 
66,732

 
213,991

 
205,137

General liability
 
123,252

 
110,894

 
357,430

 
331,303

Commercial property
 
68,587

 
61,304

 
199,699

 
182,716

Businessowners’ policies
 
23,726

 
21,649

 
69,603

 
63,797

Bonds
 
5,031

 
4,791

 
15,137

 
14,281

Other
 
3,628

 
3,237

 
10,649

 
9,633

Miscellaneous income
 
448

 
2,830

 
4,680

 
13,315

Total Standard Commercial Lines revenue
 
389,990

 
354,973

 
1,136,960

 
1,069,406

Standard Personal Lines:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net premiums earned:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Personal automobile
 
36,623

 
37,695

 
110,373

 
113,943

Homeowners
 
33,670

 
33,957

 
101,122

 
100,831

Other
 
1,795

 
2,725

 
5,143

 
8,965

Miscellaneous income
 
250

 
366

 
841

 
1,608

Total Standard Personal Lines revenue
 
72,338

 
74,743

 
217,479

 
225,347

E&S Lines:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net premiums earned:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
General liability
 
32,395

 
24,659

 
87,914

 
70,526

Commercial property
 
11,309

 
10,048

 
31,428

 
28,544

Commercial automobile
 
2,056

 
1,412

 
5,562

 
3,859

Total E&S Lines revenue
 
45,760

 
36,119

 
124,904

 
102,929

Investments:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Net investment income
 
32,061

 
34,292

 
91,208

 
106,600

Net realized investment gains
 
308

 
15,231

 
15,771

 
26,988

Total Investments revenue
 
32,369

 
49,523

 
106,979

 
133,588

Total segments revenue
 
540,457

 
515,358

 
1,586,322

 
1,531,270

Other income
 

 

 

 
8

Total revenues
 
$
540,457

 
515,358

 
1,586,322

 
1,531,278

 

21

Table of Contents

Income Before Federal Income Tax
 
Quarter ended September 30,
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
($ in thousands)
 
2015
 
2014
 
2015
 
2014
Standard Commercial Lines:
 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 
Underwriting gain
 
$
44,027

 
27,771

 
109,304

 
39,844

GAAP combined ratio
 
88.7
%
 
92.1

 
90.3

 
96.2

Statutory combined ratio
 
88.4

 
90.9

 
89.4

 
95.5

 
 
 
 


 


 


Standard Personal Lines:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Underwriting gain (loss)
 
$
2,826

 
8,037

 
(4,295
)
 
95

GAAP combined ratio
 
96.1
%
 
89.2

 
102.0

 
100.0

Statutory combined ratio
 
95.0

 
88.9

 
101.7

 
99.9

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
E&S Insurance Operations:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Underwriting loss
 
$
(2,022
)
 
(1,371
)
 
(5,033
)
 
(433
)
GAAP combined ratio
 
104.4
%
 
103.8

 
104.0

 
100.4

Statutory combined ratio
 
101.1

 
102.9

 
101.8

 
100.3

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Investments:
 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 
Net investment income
 
$
32,061

 
34,292

 
91,208

 
106,600

Net realized investment gains
 
308

 
15,231

 
15,771

 
26,988

Total investment income, before federal income tax
 
32,369

 
49,523

 
106,979

 
133,588

Tax on investment income
 
7,614

 
13,858

 
26,186

 
36,374

      Total investment income, after federal income tax

$
24,755


35,665

 
80,793

 
97,214

Reconciliation of Segment Results to Income
Before Federal Income Tax
 
Quarter ended September 30,
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
($ in thousands)
 
2015
 
2014
 
2015
 
2014
Underwriting gain (loss), before federal income tax
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Standard Commercial Lines
 
$
44,027

 
27,771

 
109,304

 
39,844

Standard Personal Lines
 
2,826

 
8,037

 
(4,295
)
 
95

E&S Lines
 
(2,022
)
 
(1,371
)
 
(5,033
)
 
(433
)
Investment income, before federal income tax
 
32,369

 
49,523

 
106,979

 
133,588

Total all segments
 
77,200

 
83,960

 
206,955

 
173,094

Interest expense
 
(5,489
)
 
(5,558
)
 
(16,458
)
 
(16,544
)
General corporate and other expenses
 
(5,872
)
 
(3,076
)
 
(21,603
)
 
(16,619
)
Income before federal income tax
 
$
65,839

 
75,326


168,894

 
139,931


22

Table of Contents


NOTE 9. Retirement Plans
The following tables show the net periodic benefit cost related to the Retirement Income Plan for Selective Insurance Company of America (“Retirement Income Plan”) and the life insurance benefits provided to eligible Selective Insurance Company of America retirees (referred to as the "Retirement Life Plan"). The Retirement Income Plan was amended in the first quarter of 2013 to curtail the accrual of additional benefits for all eligible employees after March 31, 2016. For more information concerning these plans, refer to Note 15. “Retirement Plans” in Item 8. “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.” of our 2014 Annual Report.
 
 
Retirement Income Plan
Quarter ended September 30,
 
Retirement Life Plan
Quarter ended September 30,
($ in thousands)
 
2015
 
2014
 
2015
 
2014
Components of Net Periodic Benefit Cost:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net Periodic Benefit Cost:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Service cost
 
$
1,964

 
1,627

 
$

 

Interest cost
 
3,501

 
3,253

 
64

 
73

Expected return on plan assets
 
(3,991
)
 
(3,919
)
 

 

Amortization of unrecognized net actuarial loss
 
1,696

 
367

 
13

 
14

Total net periodic cost
 
$
3,170

 
1,328

 
$
77

 
87


 
 
Retirement Income Plan
Nine Months ended September 30,
 
Retirement Life Plan
Nine Months ended September 30,
($ in thousands)
 
2015
 
2014
 
2015
 
2014
Components of Net Periodic Benefit Cost:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net Periodic Benefit Cost:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Service cost
 
$
5,891

 
4,880

 
$

 

Interest cost
 
10,504

 
9,760

 
190

 
219

Expected return on plan assets
 
(11,972
)
 
(11,756
)
 

 

Amortization of unrecognized net actuarial loss
 
5,086

 
1,102

 
41

 
40

Total net periodic cost
 
$
9,509

 
3,986

 
$
231

 
259


 
 
Retirement Income Plan
Nine Months ended September 30,
 
Retirement Life Plan
Nine Months ended September 30,
 
 
2015
 
2014
 
2015
 
2014
Weighted-Average Expense Assumptions:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Discount rate
 
4.29
%
 
5.16
 
4.08
%
 
4.85
Expected return on plan assets
 
6.27

 
6.92
 

 
Rate of compensation increase
 
4.00

 
4.00
 

 

We presently anticipate contributing $11.9 million to the Retirement Income Plan in 2015, $9.6 million of which has been funded as of September 30, 2015.

23

Table of Contents


NOTE 10. Comprehensive Income
The components of comprehensive income, both gross and net of tax, for Third Quarter and Nine Months 2015 and 2014 are as follows:
Third Quarter 2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
($ in thousands)
 
Gross
 
Tax
 
Net
Net income
 
$
65,839

 
18,843

 
46,996

Components of OCI:
 
 

 
 

 
 

Unrealized gains on investment securities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

Unrealized holding gains during the period
 
8,371

 
2,929

 
5,442

Amounts reclassified into net income:
 
 
 
 
 
 
HTM securities
 
(97
)
 
(34
)
 
(63
)
Realized gains on AFS securities
 
(305
)
 
(106
)
 
(199
)
Net unrealized gains
 
7,969

 
2,789

 
5,180

Defined benefit pension and post-retirement plans:
 
 

 
 

 
 

Amounts reclassified into net income:
 
 

 
 

 
 

Net actuarial loss
 
1,709

 
599

 
1,110

Defined benefit pension and post-retirement plans
 
1,709

 
599

 
1,110

Other comprehensive income
 
9,678

 
3,388

 
6,290

Comprehensive income
 
$
75,517

 
22,231

 
53,286


Third Quarter 2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
($ in thousands)
 
Gross
 
Tax
 
Net
Net income
 
$
75,326

 
22,164

 
53,162

Components of OCI:
 
 

 
 

 
 

Unrealized losses on investment securities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

Unrealized holding losses during the period
 
(13,831
)
 
(4,843
)
 
(8,988
)
Amounts reclassified into net income:
 
 
 
 
 
 
HTM securities
 
(373
)
 
(130
)
 
(243
)
Non-credit OTTI
 
1,200

 
420

 
780

Realized gains on AFS securities
 
(16,435
)
 
(5,752
)
 
(10,683
)
Net unrealized losses
 
(29,439
)
 
(10,305
)
 
(19,134
)
Defined benefit pension and post-retirement plans:
 
 

 
 

 
 

Amounts reclassified into net income:
 
 

 
 

 
 

Net actuarial loss
 
381

 
134

 
247

Defined benefit pension and post-retirement plans
 
381

 
134

 
247

Other comprehensive loss
 
(29,058
)
 
(10,171
)
 
(18,887
)
Comprehensive income
 
$
46,268

 
11,993

 
34,275



24

Table of Contents

Nine Months 2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
($ in thousands)
 
Gross
 
Tax
 
Net
Net income
 
$
168,894

 
48,422

 
120,472

Components of OCI:
 
 

 
 

 
 

Unrealized losses on investment securities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

Unrealized holding losses during the period
 
(27,896
)
 
(9,764
)
 
(18,132
)
Amounts reclassified into net income:
 
 
 
 
 
 
HTM securities
 
(543
)
 
(190
)
 
(353
)
Non-credit OTTI
 
357

 
125

 
232

Realized gains on AFS securities
 
(16,778
)
 
(5,872
)
 
(10,906
)
Net unrealized losses
 
(44,860
)
 
(15,701
)
 
(29,159
)
Defined benefit pension and post-retirement plans:
 
 

 
 

 
 

Amounts reclassified into net income:
 
 

 
 

 
 

Net actuarial loss
 
5,127

 
1,795

 
3,332

Defined benefit pension and post-retirement plans
 
5,127

 
1,795

 
3,332

Other comprehensive loss
 
(39,733
)
 
(13,906
)
 
(25,827
)
Comprehensive income
 
$
129,161

 
34,516

 
94,645


Nine Months 2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
($ in thousands)
 
Gross
 
Tax
 
Net
Net income
 
$
139,931

 
39,454

 
100,477

Components of OCI:
 
 

 
 
 
 
Unrealized gains on investment securities:
 
 

 
 
 
 
Unrealized holding gains during the period
 
64,255

 
22,488

 
41,767

Amounts reclassified into net income:
 
 
 
 
 
 
HTM securities
 
(1,050
)
 
(367
)
 
(683
)
Non-credit OTTI
 
1,669

 
584

 
1,085

Realized gains on AFS securities
 
(28,672
)
 
(10,035
)
 
(18,637
)
Net unrealized gains
 
36,202

 
12,670

 
23,532

Defined benefit pension and post-retirement plans:
 
 

 
 

 
 

Amounts reclassified into net income:
 
 

 
 

 
 

Net actuarial loss
 
1,142

 
400

 
742

Defined benefit pension and post-retirement plans
 
1,142

 
400

 
742

Other comprehensive income
 
37,344

 
13,070

 
24,274

Comprehensive income
 
$
177,275

 
52,524

 
124,751


The balances of, and changes in, each component of AOCI (net of taxes) as of September 30, 2015 are as follows:
September 30, 2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net Unrealized (Loss) Gain on Investment Securities
 
Defined Benefit
Pension and Post-Retirement Plans
 
Total AOCI
($ in thousands)
 
OTTI
Related
 
HTM
Related
 
All
Other
 
Investments
Subtotal
 
 
Balance, December 31, 2014
 
$
(514
)
 
623

 
80,284

 
80,393

 
(60,605
)
 
19,788

OCI before reclassifications
 

 

 
(18,132
)
 
(18,132
)
 

 
(18,132
)
Amounts reclassified from AOCI
 
232

 
(353
)
 
(10,906
)
 
(11,027
)
 
3,332

 
(7,695
)
Net current period OCI
 
232

 
(353
)
 
(29,038
)
 
(29,159
)
 
3,332

 
(25,827
)
Balance, September 30, 2015
 
$
(282
)
 
270

 
51,246

 
51,234

 
(57,273
)
 
(6,039
)

25

Table of Contents

The reclassifications out of AOCI are as follows:
 
Quarter ended
September 30,
 
Nine Months ended
September 30,
 
($ in thousands)
2015
 
2014
 
2015
 
2014
Affected Line Item in the Unaudited Consolidated Statement of Income
OTTI related
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-credit OTTI on disposed securities
$

 
1,200

 
357

 
1,669

Net realized gains
 

 
1,200

 
357

 
1,669

Income before federal income tax
 

 
(420
)
 
(125
)
 
(584
)
Total federal income tax expense
 

 
780

 
232

 
1,085

Net income
HTM related
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unrealized losses on HTM disposals
121

 
12

 
258

 
87

Net realized gains
Amortization of net unrealized gains on HTM securities
(218
)
 
(385
)
 
(801
)
 
(1,137
)
Net investment income earned
 
(97
)
 
(373
)
 
(543
)
 
(1,050
)
Income before federal income tax
 
34

 
130

 
190

 
367

Total federal income tax expense
 
(63
)
 
(243
)
 
(353
)
 
(683
)
Net income
Realized gains on AFS and OTTI
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains on AFS disposals and OTTI
(305
)
 
(16,435
)
 
(16,778
)
 
(28,672
)
Net realized gains
 
(305
)
 
(16,435
)
 
(16,778
)
 
(28,672
)
Income before federal income tax
 
106

 
5,752

 
5,872

 
10,035

Total federal income tax expense
 
(199
)
 
(10,683
)
 
(10,906
)
 
(18,637
)
Net income
Defined benefit pension and post-retirement life plans
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net actuarial loss
371

 
88

 
1,114

 
263

Loss and loss expense incurred
 
1,338

 
293

 
4,013

 
879

Policy acquisition costs
Total defined benefit pension and post-retirement life
1,709

 
381

 
5,127

 
1,142

Income before federal income tax
 
(599
)
 
(134
)
 
(1,795
)
 
(400
)
Total federal income tax expense
 
1,110

 
247

 
3,332

 
742

Net income
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total reclassifications for the period
$
848

 
(9,899
)
 
(7,695
)
 
(17,493
)
Net income

26

Table of Contents


Note 11. Litigation
In the ordinary course of conducting business, we are named as defendants in various legal proceedings. Most of these proceedings are claims litigation involving our Insurance Subsidiaries as either: (i) liability insurers defending or providing indemnity for third-party claims brought against our customers; or (ii) insurers defending first-party coverage claims brought against them. We account for such activity through the establishment of unpaid loss and loss expense reserves. We expect that the ultimate liability, if any, with respect to such ordinary course claims litigation, after consideration of provisions made for potential losses and costs of defense, will not be material to our consolidated financial condition, results of operations, or cash flows.
 
Our Insurance Subsidiaries are also from time to time involved in other legal actions, some of which assert claims for substantial amounts. These actions include, among others, putative class actions seeking certification of a state or national class. Such putative class actions have alleged, for example, improper reimbursement of medical providers paid under workers compensation and personal and commercial automobile insurance policies. Our Insurance Subsidiaries also are involved from time to time in individual actions in which extra-contractual damages, punitive damages, or penalties are sought, such as claims alleging bad faith in the handling of insurance claims. We believe that we have valid defenses to these cases. We expect that the ultimate liability, if any, with respect to such lawsuits, after consideration of provisions made for estimated losses, will not be material to our consolidated financial condition. Nonetheless, given the large or indeterminate amounts sought in certain of these actions, and the inherent unpredictability of litigation, an adverse outcome in certain matters could, from time to time, have a material adverse effect on our consolidated results of operations or cash flows in particular quarterly or annual periods. As of September 30, 2015, we do not believe the Company was involved in any legal action that could have a material adverse effect on our consolidated financial condition, results of operations, or cash flows.

Note 12. Subsequent Events
On October 28, 2015, our Board of Directors declared, for stockholders of record as of November 13, 2015, a $0.15 per share dividend to be paid on December 1, 2015. This is a 7% increase compared with the dividend declared on July 29, 2015.


27

Table of Contents


ITEM 2. MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS.

Forward-Looking Statements
As used herein, the "Company," "we," "us," or "our" refers to Selective Insurance Group, Inc., and its subsidiaries, except as expressly indicated or unless the context otherwise requires. In this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, we discuss and make statements regarding our intentions, beliefs, current expectations, and projections regarding our company’s future operations and performance. Such statements are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are often identified by words such as “anticipates,” “believes,” “expects,” “will,” “should,” and “intends” and their negatives. We caution prospective investors that such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. Risks and uncertainties are inherent in our future performance. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated by such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those discussed under Item 1A. “Risk Factors” below in Part II “Other Information.” These risk factors may not be exhaustive. We operate in a continually changing business environment and new risk factors emerge from time to time. We can neither predict such new risk factors nor can we assess the impact, if any, of such new risk factors on our businesses or the extent to which any factor or combination of factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements in this report. In light of these risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, the forward-looking events discussed in this report might not occur. We make forward-looking statements based on currently available information and assume no obligation to update these statements due to changes in underlying factors, new information, future developments, or otherwise.
  
Introduction
Selective Insurance Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, offers property and casualty insurance products in the standard and excess and surplus ("E&S") marketplaces. We classify our business into four reportable segments, which are as follows:

Standard Commercial Lines - which represents 78% of our combined insurance segments' net premiums written ("NPW"), sells commercial lines insurance products and services to businesses, non-profit organizations, and local government agencies located primarily in 22 states in the Eastern and Midwestern U.S. and the District of Columbia through 1,140 distribution partners in the standard marketplace.

Standard Personal Lines - which includes our flood business, represents approximately 14% of our combined insurance segments' NPW and sells personal lines insurance products and services to individuals located primarily in 13 states through approximately 700 distribution partners in the standard marketplace. In addition, we have approximately 5,500 distribution partners selling our flood business.

E&S Lines - which represents 8% of our combined insurance segments' NPW, sells commercial lines insurance products and services in all 50 states and the District of Columbia through approximately 80 distribution partners. Insurance policies in this segment are sold to customers that typically have business risks with unique characteristics, such as the nature of the business or its claim history and cannot obtain coverage in the standard marketplace. E&S insurers have more flexibility in coverage terms and rates compared to standard market insurers, generally resulting in policies with higher rates and terms and conditions that are more narrowly customized for specific risks.

Investments - invests the premiums collected by our Standard Commercial Lines, Standard Personal Lines, and E&S
Lines, as well as our earnings and amounts generated through our capital management strategies, which may include the issuance of debt and equity securities.

Our Standard Commercial and Standard Personal Lines products and services are written through nine subsidiaries, some of which write flood business through the Write Your Own ("WYO") program of the National Flood Insurance Program ("NFIP").
Our E&S products and services are written through one subsidiary. This subsidiary, Mesa Underwriters Specialty Insurance Company ("MUSIC"), provides us with a nationally-authorized non-admitted platform to offer insurance products and services to customers who have not obtained coverage in the standard marketplace.
Our ten insurance subsidiaries are collectively referred to as the "Insurance Subsidiaries."
The following is Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”) of the consolidated results of operations and financial condition, as well as known trends and uncertainties, that may have a material impact in future periods. Consequently, investors should read the MD&A in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements in our 2014 Annual Report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC").

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Table of Contents

In the MD&A, we will discuss and analyze the following:
Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates;
Financial Highlights of Results for the third quarters ended September 30, 2015 (“Third Quarter 2015”) and September 30, 2014 (“Third Quarter 2014”) and the nine-month periods ended September 30, 2015 ("Nine Months 2015") and September 30, 2014 ("Nine Months 2014");
Results of Operations and Related Information by Segment;
Federal Income Taxes;
Financial Condition, Liquidity, Short-term Borrowings, and Capital Resources;
Ratings;
Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements; and
Contractual Obligations, Contingent Liabilities, and Commitments.

Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates
Our unaudited interim consolidated financial statements include amounts based on our informed estimates and judgments for those transactions that are not yet complete. Such estimates and judgments affect the reported amounts in the consolidated financial statements. Those estimates and judgments most critical to the preparation of the consolidated financial statements involve the following: (i) reserves for loss and loss expenses; (ii) pension and post-retirement benefit plan actuarial assumptions; (iii) other-than-temporary investment impairments ("OTTI"); and (iv) reinsurance. These estimates and judgments require the use of assumptions about matters that are highly uncertain and, therefore, are subject to change as facts and circumstances develop. If different estimates and judgments had been applied, materially different amounts might have been reported in the financial statements. For additional information regarding our critical accounting policies, refer to pages 37 through 48 of our 2014 Annual Report.
 
Financial Highlights of Results for Third Quarter and Nine Months 2015 and Third Quarter and Nine Months 20141 
 
 
Quarter ended September 30,
 
 
 
 
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
 
 
 
 
($ and shares in thousands, except per share amounts)
 
2015
 
2014
 
Change
% or Points
 
 
 
2015
 
2014
 
Change
% or Points
 
 
Generally Accepted Accounting Principles ("GAAP") measures:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenues
 
$
540,457

 
515,358

 
5

 
%
 
$
1,586,322

 
1,531,278

 
4

 
%
Net investment income earned
 
32,061

 
34,292

 
(7
)
 
 
 
91,208

 
106,600

 
(14
)
 
 
   Income before federal income tax
 
65,839

 
75,326

 
(13
)
 
 
 
168,894

 
139,931

 
21

 
 
Net income
 
46,996

 
53,162

 
(12
)
 
 
 
120,472

 
100,477

 
20

 
 
Diluted net income per share
 
0.81

 
0.93

 
(13
)
 
 
 
2.08

 
1.75

 
19

 
 
Diluted weighted-average outstanding shares
 
57,984

 
57,406

 
1

 
 
 
57,838

 
57,286

 
1

 
 
GAAP combined ratio
 
91.2
%
 
92.6

 
(1.4
)
 
pts 
 
93.2
%
 
97.1

 
(3.9
)
 
pts 
   Statutory combined ratio
 
90.5

 
91.5

 
(1.0
)
 
 
 
92.3

 
96.6

 
(4.3
)
 
 
Invested assets per dollar of stockholders' equity
 
$
3.69

 
3.79

 
(3
)
 
%
 
$
3.69

 
3.79

 
(3
)
 
%
After-tax yield on investments
 
2.0
%
 
2.2

 
(0.2
)
 
pts
 
1.9
%
 
2.3

 
(0.4
)
 
pts
Return on average equity ("ROE")
 
14.1

 
17.0

 
(2.9
)
 
 
 
12.2

 
11.1

 
1.1

 
 
Non-GAAP measures:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Operating income2
 
$
46,796

 
43,262

 
8

 
%
 
$
110,221

 
82,935

 
33

 
%
Diluted operating income per share2
 
0.81

 
0.76

 
7

 
 
 
1.90

 
1.44

 
32

 
 
Operating ROE2
 
14.0
%
 
13.8

 
0.2

 
pts 
 
11.2
%
 
9.1

 
2.1

 
pts 
1 
Refer to the Glossary of Terms attached to our 2014 Annual Report as Exhibit 99.1 for definitions of terms used in this Form 10-Q.
2 
Operating income is used as an important financial measure by us, analysts, and investors, because the realization of investment gains and losses on sales in any given period is largely discretionary as to timing. In addition, these realized investment gains and losses, as well as OTTI that are charged to earnings and the results of discontinued operations, could distort the analysis of trends. See below for a reconciliation of operating income to net income in accordance with GAAP. Operating ROE is calculated by dividing annualized operating income by average stockholders’ equity.


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Table of Contents

The following table reconciles operating income and net income for the periods presented above:
 
 
Quarter ended September 30,
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
($ in thousands, except per share amounts)
 
2015
 
2014
 
2015
 
2014
Operating income
 
$
46,796

 
43,262

 
$
110,221

 
82,935

Net realized gains, net of tax
 
200

 
9,900

 
10,251

 
17,542

Net income
 
$
46,996

 
53,162

 
$
120,472

 
100,477

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Diluted operating income per share
 
$
0.81

 
0.76

 
$
1.90

 
1.44

Diluted net realized gains per share
 

 
0.17

 
0.18

 
0.31

Diluted net income per share
 
$
0.81

 
0.93

 
$
2.08

 
1.75


It is our goal to average an operating ROE that is at least three points higher than our weighted-average cost of capital. At September 30, 2015, our weighted-average cost of capital was 8%. Our ROE contributions by component are as follows:
ROE
 
Quarter ended September 30,
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
 
 
2015
 
2014
 
2015
 
2014
Insurance Segments
 
8.7
 %
 
7.1

 
6.6
 %
 
2.9

Investment income1
 
7.4

 
8.2

 
7.1

 
8.8

Other
 
(2.1
)
 
(1.5
)
 
(2.5
)
 
(2.6
)
Operating ROE
 
14.0

 
13.8

 
11.2

 
9.1

Net realized gains1
 
0.1

 
3.2

 
1.0

 
2.0

ROE
 
14.1
 %
 
17.0

 
12.2
 %
 
11.1

1 Investment segment results are the combination of Investment income and Net realized gains.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Insurance Segments
The key metric in understanding our insurance segments’ contribution to operating ROE is the GAAP combined ratio. The following table provides a quantitative foundation for analyzing this ratio:
All Lines
 
Quarter ended September 30,
 
 
 
 
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
 
 
 
 
($ in thousands)
 
2015
 
2014
 
Change % or Points
 
 
 
2015
 
2014
 
Change % or Points
 
 
GAAP Insurance Operations Results:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NPW
 
$
545,025

 
495,121

 
10

 
%
 
$
1,595,246

 
1,451,694

 
10

 
%
Net premiums earned (“NPE”)
 
507,390

 
462,639

 
10

 
 
 
1,473,822

 
1,382,759

 
7

 
 
Less:
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and loss expense incurred
 
285,161

 
270,932

 
5

 
 
 
861,721

 
889,273

 
(3
)
 
 
Net underwriting expenses incurred
 
175,477

 
156,114

 
12

 
 
 
506,835

 
450,037

 
13

 
 
Dividends to policyholders
 
1,921

 
1,156

 
66

 
 
 
5,290

 
3,943

 
34

 
 
Underwriting gain
 
$
44,831

 
34,437

 
30

 
%
 
$
99,976

 
39,506

 
153

 
%
GAAP Ratios:
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and loss expense ratio
 
56.2

%
58.6

 
(2.4
)
 
pts 
 
58.5

%
64.3

 
(5.8
)
 
pts 
Underwriting expense ratio
 
34.6

 
33.8

 
0.8

 
 
 
34.3

 
32.5

 
1.8

 
 
Dividends to policyholders ratio
 
0.4

 
0.2

 
0.2

 
 
 
0.4

 
0.3

 
0.1

 
 
Combined ratio
 
91.2

 
92.6

 
(1.4
)
 
 
 
93.2

 
97.1

 
(3.9
)
 
 
Statutory Ratios:
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and loss expense ratio
 
56.1

 
58.4

 
(2.3
)
 
 
 
58.5

 
64.2

 
(5.7
)
 
 
Underwriting expense ratio
 
34.0

 
32.9

 
1.1

 
 
 
33.4

 
32.1

 
1.3

 
 
Dividends to policyholders ratio
 
0.4

 
0.2

 
0.2

 
 
 
0.4

 
0.3

 
0.1

 
 
Combined ratio
 
90.5

%
91.5

 
(1.0
)
 
pts 
 
92.3

%
96.6

 
(4.3
)
 
pts 


30

Table of Contents

The improvements in our GAAP combined ratio in both the quarter and year-to-date periods were driven by the following factors:

Earned rate in excess of expected loss inflation in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2015. Renewal pure price increases of 3.5% in Nine Months 2015 and 4.9% in the last three months of 2014 provided earned rate that was above our expected loss inflation. After taking into account the incremental expenses associated with the additional premium, the net benefit to the combined ratios was approximately 0.5 points and 1 point in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2015, respectively.

Favorable prior year casualty reserve development of approximately $15.0 million, or 3.0 points, in Third Quarter 2015, and $55.0 million, or 3.8 points, in Nine Months 2015, primarily driven by accident years 2013 and prior. The overall net favorable development was driven by the general liability and workers compensation lines of business. Refer to the table below for further details:
(Favorable)/Unfavorable Prior Year Casualty Reserve Development
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Quarter ended September 30,
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
 
($ in millions)
2015
 
2014
 
2015
 
2014
 
General liability
$
(5.0
)
 
(11.0
)
 
$
(41.0
)
 
(36.0
)
 
Commercial automobile

 

 
3.0

 
(4.0
)
 
Workers compensation
(14.0
)
 

 
(27.0
)
 

 
Businessowners' policies

 
1.0

 
4.0

 
2.5

 
   Total Standard Commercial Lines
(19.0
)
 
(10.0
)
 
(61.0
)
 
(37.5
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Personal automobile

 
(2.0
)
 

 
(6.0
)
 
   Total Standard Personal Lines

 
(2.0
)
 

 
(6.0
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
E&S
4.0

 
4.0

 
6.0

 
4.0

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total (favorable) prior year casualty reserve development
$
(15.0
)
 
(8.0
)
 
$
(55.0
)
 
(39.5
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(Favorable) impact on loss ratio
(3.0
)
pts
(1.6
)
 
(3.8
)
pts
(2.8
)
 
For a qualitative discussion of this reserve development, please refer to the respective insurance segment section below in
"Results of Operations and Related Information by Segment."

In addition, lower catastrophe and non-catastrophe property losses, as a result of reduced severity in weather-related events in Nine Months 2015, compared with the same periods last year, contributed to the improvement in our GAAP combined ratio. Quantitative details are as follows:
 
Nine Months ended 2015
 
 
Nine Months ended 2014
 
 
 
($ in millions)
Losses Incurred
Impact on
Loss Ratio
 
 
Losses
Incurred
Impact on
 Loss Ratio
 
Change in Ratio
 
Catastrophe losses
$
56.1

3.8
pts
 
$
66.9

4.8
pts
(1.0
)
pts
Non-catastrophe property losses
206.7

14.0
 
 
224.8

16.3
 
(2.3
)
 

Partially offsetting the improvements in the loss and loss expense ratios above were increases in the underwriting expense ratios of 0.8 points for Third Quarter 2015 and 1.8 points for Nine Months 2015. The increases in both periods were primarily related to the following factors, each of which contributed 0.3 points to the underwriting expense ratios:
Improved underwriting profitability, which resulted in higher supplemental commission expense to our distribution partners;

Improved underwriting profitability, which also resulted in higher annual incentive compensation expense to employees; and

Pension expense increases due to the accrual of service costs for eligible employees and the negative impact of declining interest rates last year.


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Table of Contents

In addition, the underwriting expense ratio for Nine Months 2014 included $8.0 million, or 0.6 points, of a non-recurring benefit related to the sale of the renewal rights to our self-insured group, or "SIG", book of business in March 2014.

For additional information regarding: (i) the sale of our SIG book of business; and (ii) our Retirement Income Plan, see Note 8. “Segment Information” and Note 9. "Retirement Plans," respectively, in Item 1. “Financial Statements.” of this Form 10-Q.
Investments Segment
The investment segment's operating ROE was negatively impacted by lower investment income from our alternative investment portfolio in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2015, which was primarily driven by declining oil prices in energy-exposed limited partnerships, the results of which are reported to us on a one quarter lag. Additionally, lower reinvestment yields on our fixed income securities portfolio continue to negatively impact investment income. In Nine Months 2015, fixed income securities that we purchased had an average after-tax yield of 1.6% compared with our full year expectation of 2%, while those that were called, matured, or otherwise disposed of yielded an average of 2.5%, after tax.

The decreases in net realized gains in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2015, compared with the respective prior year periods, were driven by the sale of AFS equity securities in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2014 related to the quantitative rebalancing of our dividend yield strategy holdings within our equity portfolio. In addition, net realized gains decreased in Nine Months 2015 compared with Nine Months 2014 due to OTTI charges primarily within our equity portfolio. For further details, refer to the section below entitled "Investments."

Outlook
Based on its Review & Preview report issued in February 2015, A.M. Best Company, Inc. ("A.M. Best") expects the industry combined ratio to deteriorate almost 200 basis points in 2015 to 99.1%, compared with 97.2% in 2014, reflecting: (i) a reduction in the level of rate increases; (ii) a 0.5-point increase in their catastrophe loss estimate to a more normal level of approximately five points; and (iii) reductions in the level of favorable prior year development. Additionally, after declining in each of the past two years, A.M. Best expects investment income to increase modestly in 2015, driven by growth in invested assets from positive cash flow, as yields will continue to be challenged. They believe the main challenges facing the industry include: (i) continued pressure on net investment income reflecting low returns on fixed income investments; (ii) reserve shortfalls due to current accident year underestimations and prior accident year unfavorable development; (iii) developing, attracting, and maintaining underwriting talent; (iv) continuing the evolution of data analytics; and (v) addressing the uncertainties surrounding emerging risks such as terrorism, cyber risk, and infectious diseases. Considering these, among other factors, A.M. Best has a negative outlook on the commercial lines market and a stable outlook on the personal lines market.
Based on our results through Nine Months 2015, we are providing the following refinements to our 2015 full-year guidance:
A statutory combined ratio, excluding catastrophes and further prior year casualty reserve development, of 89%, an improvement from our original guidance of 91%;
Four points of catastrophe losses;
Overall renewal pure pricing between 3% and 3.5%;
After-tax investment income of approximately $95 million, at the low end of our previous guidance provided in the second quarter of 2015; and
Weighted average shares of approximately 58 million.

While we expect the competitive market environment to continue, we believe that we have a strong foundation to continue to deliver strong profitability considering:
The size of our company and field model that provides us with the ability to be agile and responsive to our customers' needs;
Our reserve position that reflects the discipline we have always maintained in our reserving practices;
Our customer-centric approach to our business with a focus on our policyholders and the service we bring to them;
The utilization of our capabilities regarding data analytics; and
Our deep bench of talent in the organization and our continuous cultivation of that talent.

It is our goal to average an operating ROE that is at least three points higher than our weighted-average cost of capital. At September 30, 2015, our weighted-average cost of capital was 8%.

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Table of Contents


Results of Operations and Related Information by Segment

Standard Commercial Lines
 
 
Quarter ended September 30,
 
 
 
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
 
 
 
($ in thousands)
 
2015
 
2014
 
Change
% or
Points
 
 
2015
 
2014
 
Change
% or
Points
 
GAAP Insurance Operations Results:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NPW
 
$
414,031

 
376,438

 
10

%
 
$
1,240,110

 
1,119,648

 
11

%
NPE
 
389,542

 
352,143

 
11

 
 
1,132,280

 
1,056,091

 
7

 
Less:
 
 
 
  

 
 

 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
Loss and loss expense incurred
 
203,621

 
201,352

 
1

 
 
619,857

 
660,523

 
(6
)
 
Net underwriting expenses incurred
 
139,973

 
121,864

 
15

 
 
397,829

 
351,781

 
13

 
Dividends to policyholders
 
1,921

 
1,156

 
66

 
 
5,290

 
3,943

 
34

 
Underwriting gain
 
$
44,027

 
27,771

 
59

%
 
$
109,304

 
39,844

 
174

%
GAAP Ratios:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and loss expense ratio
 
52.3

%
57.2

 
(4.9
)
pts
 
54.7

%
62.5

 
(7.8
)
pts
Underwriting expense ratio
 
35.9

 
34.6

 
1.3

 
 
35.1

 
33.3

 
1.8

 
Dividends to policyholders ratio
 
0.5

 
0.3

 
0.2

 
 
0.5

 
0.4

 
0.1

 
Combined ratio
 
88.7

 
92.1

 
(3.4
)
 
 
90.3

 
96.2

 
(5.9
)
 
Statutory Ratios:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and loss expense ratio
 
52.2

 
56.9

 
(4.7
)
 
 
54.7

 
62.5

 
(7.8
)
 
Underwriting expense ratio
 
35.7

 
33.7

 
2.0

 
 
34.2

 
32.6

 
1.6

 
Dividends to policyholders ratio
 
0.5

 
0.3

 
0.2

 
 
0.5

 
0.4

 
0.1

 
Combined ratio
 
88.4

%
90.9

 
(2.5
)
pts
 
89.4

%
95.5

 
(6.1
)
pts

The increases in NPW in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2015 compared with the same periods last year were driven by: (i) increases in direct new business; (ii) renewal pure price increases; and (iii) strong retention.
 
 
Quarter ended September 30,
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
($ in millions)
 
2015
 
2014
 
2015
 
2014
Retention
 
84

%
83

 
83

%
82

Renewal pure price increases
 
2.8

 
5.3

 
3.1

 
5.8

Direct new business
 
$
83.9

 
71.1

 
$
262.3

 
204.7


NPE increases in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2015 compared with Third Quarter and Nine Months 2014 were consistent with the fluctuations in NPW for the twelve-month period ended September 30, 2015 compared with the twelve-month period ended September 30, 2014.

The GAAP loss and loss expense ratio decreased by 4.9 and 7.8 points in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2015, respectively, compared with the same prior year periods, driven by: (i) decreases in catastrophe and non-catastrophe property losses; (ii) renewal pure price increases that averaged 3.1% in Nine Months 2015 and 4.7% in the last three months of 2014, the earning of which exceeded our expected loss inflation and improved profitability by approximately 0.5 and 1 point in the current quarter and year-to-date periods, respectively; and (iii) favorable prior year casualty reserve development.

Quantitative information regarding property losses and prior year development is as follows:

Quarter ended
September 30, 2015

Quarter ended
September 30, 2014


($ in millions)
Losses Incurred
Impact on
Loss Ratio


Losses Incurred
Impact on
 Loss Ratio

Change in Ratio

Catastrophe losses
$
0.7

0.2

pts

$
3.3

0.9

pts
(0.7
)
pts
Non-catastrophe property losses
37.9

9.7



35.3

10.0


(0.3
)

Favorable prior year casualty reserve development
(19.0
)
(4.9
)


(10.0
)
(2.7
)

(2.2
)


33

Table of Contents


 
Nine Months ended September 30, 2015
 
Nine Months ended September 30, 2014
 
 
($ in millions)
Losses Incurred
Impact on
Loss Ratio
 
 
Losses Incurred
Impact on
 Loss Ratio
 
Change in Ratio
 
Catastrophe losses
$
33.0

2.9

pts
 
$
41.9

4.0

pts
(1.1
)
pts
Non-catastrophe property losses
120.8

10.7

 
 
137.7

13.0

 
(2.3
)
 
Favorable prior year casualty reserve development
(61.0
)
(5.4
)
 
 
(37.5
)
(3.5
)
 
(1.9
)
 

The favorable prior year casualty reserve development was driven by the general liability and workers compensation lines of business. The significant contributor to the favorable prior year casualty reserve development is the claims and underwriting initiatives we have undertaken, particularly in the workers compensation line of business. These initiatives are described in the "Reserves for Losses and Loss Expenses" section of "Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates" in Item 7. "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations." of our 2014 Annual Report.

Partially offsetting the improvements in the loss and loss expense ratio above were increases of 1.3 and 1.8 points in the underwriting expense ratio in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2015, respectively, compared with the same prior year periods. These increases were primarily attributable to: (i) higher supplemental commission expense to our distribution partners; (ii) increases in annual incentive compensation expense to employees; and (iii) pension expense increases, which are discussed further in "Financial Highlights of Results for Third Quarter and Nine Months 2015 and Third Quarter and Nine Months 2014" above. Additionally, the prior year underwriting ratio included $8.0 million, or 0.8 points, of non-recurring benefit related to the sale of the renewal rights to our SIG book of business in March 2014.

For additional information regarding the sale of our SIG book of business, see Note 8. “Segment Information” in Item 1. “Financial Statements.” of this Form 10-Q.
 
The following is a discussion of our most significant standard Commercial Lines of business and their respective statutory results:
General Liability
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Quarter ended September 30,
 
 
 
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
 
 
 
($ in thousands)
 
2015
 
2014
 
Change
% or
Points
 
 
2015
 
2014
 
Change
% or
Points
 
Statutory NPW
 
$
130,722

 
117,731

 
11

%
 
$
395,840

 
355,411

 
11

%
  Direct new business
 
24,739

 
20,738

 
19

 
 
77,144

 
60,412

 
28

 
  Retention
 
84

%
83

 
1

pts
 
83

%
82

 
1

pts
  Renewal pure price increases
 
2.3

 
6.1

 
(3.8
)
 
 
2.8

 
7.0

 
(4.2
)
 
Statutory NPE
 
$
123,252

 
110,894

 
11

%
 
$
357,430

 
331,303

 
8

%
Statutory combined ratio
 
89.1

%
84.2

 
4.9

pts
 
80.0

%
81.8

 
(1.8
)
pts
% of total statutory standard Commercial Lines NPW
 
32

 
31

 
 

 
 
32

 
32

 
 

 
The increases in NPW in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2015 compared with Third Quarter and Nine Months 2014 were driven by: (i) increases in direct new business; (ii) renewal pure price increases; and (iii) strong retention.

NPE increases in the same periods were consistent with the fluctuations in NPW for the twelve-month period ended September 30, 2015 compared with the twelve-month period ended September 30, 2014.

In addition to the quantitative information in the tables below, the statutory combined ratios in the quarter and year-to-date periods were positively impacted by the pricing we have achieved. Renewal pure price increases were 2.8% in Nine Months 2015 and 5.7% in the last three months of 2014, the earning of which exceeded our expected loss inflation and improved profitability by approximately 0.5 points and 1 point in the current quarter and year-to-date periods, respectively.


34

Table of Contents


Quarter ended
September 30, 2015
Quarter ended
September 30, 2014


($ in millions)
(Benefit) Expense
Impact on
Combined Ratio

 (Benefit) Expense
Impact on
Combined Ratio

Change
Points

Favorable prior year casualty reserve development
$
(5.0
)
(4.1
)
pts
$
(11.0
)
(9.9
)
pts
5.8
pts

 
Nine Months ended September 30, 2015
Nine Months ended September 30, 2014
 
 
($ in millions)
(Benefit) Expense
Impact on
Combined Ratio
 
 (Benefit) Expense
Impact on
Combined Ratio
 
Change
Points
 
Favorable prior year casualty reserve development
$
(41.0
)
(11.5
)
pts
$
(36.0
)
(10.9
)
pts
(0.6
)
pts
Sale of SIG renewal rights


 
(2.1
)
(0.6
)
 
0.6

 

Favorable prior year casualty reserve development in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2015 was driven by the 2009 through 2013 accident years, primarily due to lower claims frequencies and severities in those accident years. This is partially offset by unfavorable development in the 2014 accident year. Favorable prior year casualty reserve development in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2014 was driven by accident years 2012 and prior.

Commercial Automobile
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Quarter ended September 30,
 
 
 
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
 
 
 
($ in thousands)
 
2015
 
2014
 
Change
% or
Points
 
 
2015
 
2014
 
Change
% or
Points
 
Statutory NPW
 
$
97,941

 
90,599

 
8

%
 
$
291,547

 
267,134

 
9

%
  Direct new business
 
17,345

 
14,275

 
22

 
 
54,200

 
42,760

 
27

 
  Retention
 
85

%
83

 
2

pts
 
84

%
82

 
2

pts
  Renewal pure price increases
 
3.7

 
5.1

 
(1.4
)
 
 
3.7

 
5.8

 
(2.1
)
 
Statutory NPE
 
$
90,758

 
83,536

 
9

%
 
$
265,771

 
249,224

 
7

%
Statutory combined ratio
 
104.5

%
92.8

 
11.7

pts
 
101.5

%
93.7

 
7.8

pts
% of total statutory standard Commercial Lines NPW
 
24

 
24

 
 

 
 
24

 
24

 
 

 
The increases in NPW in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2015 compared with Third Quarter and Nine Months 2014 were driven by: (i) increases in direct new business; (ii) renewal pure price increases; and (iii) strong retention.

NPE increases in the same periods were consistent with the fluctuations in NPW for the twelve-month period ended September 30, 2015 compared with the twelve-month period ended September 30, 2014.

The 11.7-point increase in the statutory combined ratio in Third Quarter 2015 compared with Third Quarter 2014 was driven by: (i) higher non-catastrophe property losses; and (ii) higher current year loss costs driven by a modest increase in loss severities.

These increases were partially offset by renewal pure price increases of 3.7% in Nine Months 2015 and 4.7% in the last three months of 2014, the earning of which exceeded our expected loss inflation and improved profitability by approximately 1 point in Third Quarter 2015.

Quantitative information regarding the non-catastrophe property losses is as follows:
 
Quarter ended
September 30, 2015
 
Quarter ended
September 30, 2014
 
 
($ in millions)
Losses Incurred
Impact on
Loss Ratio
 
 
Losses Incurred
Impact on
 Loss Ratio
 
Change in Ratio
 
Non-catastrophe property losses
$
14.2

15.6

pts
 
$
10.0

11.9
pts
3.7
pts

The 7.8-point increase in the statutory combined ratio in Nine Months 2015 compared with Nine Months 2014 was driven by: (i) higher non-catastrophe property losses, (ii) unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development; and (iii) higher current year loss costs driven by a modest increase in loss severities.


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Table of Contents

These increases were partially offset by renewal pure price increases of 3.7% in Nine Months 2015 and 4.7% in the last three months of 2014, the earning of which exceeded our expected loss inflation and improved profitability by approximately 1 point in Nine Months 2015.

Quantitative information regarding these items is as follows:
 
Nine Months ended September 30, 2015
 
Nine Months ended September 30, 2014
 
 
($ in millions)
Losses Incurred
Impact on
Loss Ratio
 
 
Losses Incurred
Impact on
 Loss Ratio
 
Change in Ratio
 
Non-catastrophe property losses
$
40.1

15.1
pts
 
$
34.0

13.6

pts
1.5

pts
Unfavorable/ (Favorable) prior year casualty reserve development
3.0

1.1
 
 
(4.0
)
(1.6
)
 
2.7

 
Sale of SIG renewal rights

 
 
(1.5
)
(0.6
)
 
0.6

 

Workers Compensation
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Quarter ended September 30,
 
 
 
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
 
 
 
($ in thousands)
 
2015
 
2014
 
Change
% or
Points
 
 
2015
 
2014
 
Change
% or
Points
 
Statutory NPW
 
$
74,446

 
65,740

 
13

%
 
$
233,722

 
206,921

 
13

%
  Direct new business
 
17,116

 
12,512

 
37

 
 
55,394

 
37,239

 
49

 
  Retention
 
84

%
81

 
3

pts
 
83

%
81

 
2

pts
  Renewal pure price increases
 
2.5

 
5.1

 
(2.6
)
 
 
2.9

 
5.2

 
(2.3
)
 
Statutory NPE
 
$
74,560

 
66,732

 
12

%
 
$
213,991

 
205,137

 
4

%
Statutory combined ratio
 
84.0

%
111.2

 
(27.2
)
pts
 
87.7

%
109.6

 
(21.9
)
pts
% of total statutory standard Commercial Lines NPW
 
18

 
17

 
 

 
 
19

 
18

 
 
 

The increases in NPW in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2015 compared with Third Quarter and Nine Months 2014 were driven by: (i) increases in direct new business; (ii) renewal pure price increases; and (iii) strong retention.

NPE increases in the same periods were consistent with the fluctuations in NPW for the twelve-month period ended September 30, 2015 compared with the twelve-month period ended September 30, 2014.

The decrease in the statutory combined ratio in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2015 compared with the same prior year periods was due to the following:

Favorable prior year casualty reserve development of $14 million, or 18.8 points, in Third Quarter 2015, related primarily to accident years 2014 and prior, compared to no development in Third Quarter 2014;

Favorable prior year casualty reserve development of $27 million, or 12.6 points, in Nine Months 2015, related primarily to accident years 2014 and prior, compared to no development in Nine Months 2014; and

Lower expected loss costs for the current accident year that resulted in a 9.3-point decrease in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2015, reflecting our ongoing focus on improving this competitive line of business through underwriting, pricing, and claims initiatives, as further discussed below.

Reductions in current and prior year loss costs in this line of business were primarily driven by continued lower frequencies and severities. We believe these trends are evidence of the significant claims and underwriting initiatives that we have undertaken on this line of business. These initiatives include:
 
Centralizing all workers compensation claim handling in Charlotte, North Carolina;

Managing non-complex workers compensation claims within our footprint through jurisdictionally-trained and aligned medical only and lost-time adjusters; and

Referring claims with high exposure and/or significant escalation risk to our workers compensation strategic case management unit.

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Table of Contents


In addition, the industry has experienced a period of lower medical cost inflation, which has favorably impacted our estimate of ultimate losses on this line of business.

As a result of our performance, we are revising our workers compensation combined ratio guidance for full-year 2015 to 91%, assuming no additional reserve development, from our original guidance to be below 103%.

Commercial Property
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Quarter ended September 30,
 
 
 
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
 
 
 
($ in thousands)
 
2015
 
2014
 
Change
% or
Points
 
 
2015
 
2014
 
Change
% or
Points
 
Statutory NPW
 
$
77,674

 
71,463

 
9

%
 
$
219,308

 
198,189

 
11

%
  Direct new business
 
17,730

 
16,783

 
6

 
 
54,457

 
44,549

 
22

 
  Retention
 
83

%
82

 
1

pts
 
82

%
81

 
1

pts
Renewal pure price increases
 
2.7

 
4.2

 
(1.5
)
 
 
2.8

 
4.6

 
(1.8
)
 
Statutory NPE
 
$
68,587

 
61,304

 
12

%
 
$
199,699

 
182,716

 
9

%
Statutory combined ratio
 
67.8

%
79.9

 
(12.1
)
pts
 
86.9

%
104.1

 
(17.2
)
pts
% of total statutory standard Commercial Lines NPW
 
19

 
19

 
 

 
 
18

 
18

 
 
 

The increases in NPW in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2015 compared with Third Quarter and Nine Months 2014 were driven by: (i) increases in direct new business; (ii) renewal pure price increases; and (iii) strong retention.

NPE increases in the same periods were consistent with the fluctuations in NPW for the twelve-month period ended September 30, 2015 compared with the twelve-month period ended September 30, 2014.

The decreases in the statutory combined ratio in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2015 compared with Third Quarter and Nine Months 2014 were due to the following:

Quarter ended
September 30, 2015

Quarter ended
September 30, 2014


($ in millions)
(Benefit) Expense
Impact on
Combined Ratio


(Benefit) Expense
Impact on
Combined Ratio

Change
% or
Points

Catastrophe losses
$
(0.5
)
(0.8
)
pts

$
2.7

4.4
pts
(5.2
)
pts
Non-catastrophe property losses
17.4

25.3



20.8

34.0

(8.7
)


 
Nine Months ended September 30, 2015
 
Nine Months ended September 30, 2014
 
 
($ in millions)
(Benefit) Expense
Impact on
Combined Ratio
 
 
(Benefit) Expense
Impact on
Combined Ratio
 
Change
% or
Points
 
Catastrophe losses
$
25.6

12.8
pts
 
$
31.7

17.4

pts
(4.6
)
pts
Non-catastrophe property losses
62.6

31.3
 
 
83.4

45.6

 
(14.3
)
 
Sale of SIG renewal rights

 
 
(1.4
)
(0.7
)
 
0.7

 

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Table of Contents


Standard Personal Lines
 
 
Quarter ended September 30,
 
 
 
 
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
 
 
 
($ in thousands)
 
2015
 
2014
 
Change
% or
Points
 
 
 
2015
 
2014
 
Change
% or
Points
 
GAAP Insurance Operations Results:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NPW
 
$
76,927

 
79,048

 
(3
)
 
%
 
$
217,937

 
224,567

 
(3
)
%
NPE
 
72,088

 
74,377

 
(3
)
 
 
 
216,638

 
223,739

 
(3
)
 
Less:
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
Loss and loss expense incurred
 
49,588

 
45,137

 
10

 
 
 
156,490

 
162,027

 
(3
)
 
Net underwriting expenses incurred
 
19,674

 
21,203

 
(7
)
 
 
 
64,443

 
61,617

 
5

 
Underwriting gain (loss)
 
$
2,826

 
8,037

 
(65
)
 
%
 
$
(4,295
)
 
95

 
(4,621
)
%
GAAP Ratios:
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
Loss and loss expense ratio
 
68.8

%
60.7

 
8.1

 
pts
 
72.2

%
72.4

 
(0.2
)
pts
Underwriting expense ratio
 
27.3

 
28.5

 
(1.2
)
 
 
 
29.8

 
27.6

 
2.2

 
Combined ratio
 
96.1

 
89.2

 
6.9

 
 
 
102.0

 
100.0

 
2.0

 
Statutory Ratios:
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
Loss and loss expense ratio
 
68.7

 
60.7

 
8.0

 
 
 
72.4

 
72.4

 

 
Underwriting expense ratio
 
26.3

 
28.2

 
(1.9
)
 
 
 
29.3

 
27.5

 
1.8

 
Combined ratio
 
95.0

%
88.9

 
6.1

 
pts
 
101.7

%
99.9

 
1.8

pts

The decreases in NPW for the current quarter and year-to-date periods compared with the same prior year periods were primarily driven by targeted non-renewals of less profitable accounts coupled with a decrease in new business. Quantitative information is as follows:
 
 
Quarter ended September 30,
 
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
 
($ in millions)
 
2015
 
2014
 
 
2015
 
2014
 
New business
 
$
9.1

 
10.1
 
 
$
25.0

 
27.8
 
Retention
 
83

%
81
 
 
82

%
81
 
Renewal pure price increases
 
5.4

 
6.8
 
 
6.3

 
6.5
 

NPE decreases in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2015 compared with Third Quarter and Nine Months 2014 were consistent with the fluctuations in NPW for the twelve-month period ended September 30, 2015 compared with the twelve-month period ended September 30, 2014.

The GAAP loss and loss expense ratio increased 8.1 points in Third Quarter 2015 compared with the same period last year. In addition to the quantitative information below, renewal pure price increases of 6.3% in Nine Months 2015 and 6.7% in the last three months of 2014 provided earned rate that exceeded our expected loss inflation and improved profitability by approximately 2.5 points in Third Quarter 2015.
 
Quarter ended September 30, 2015
 
Quarter ended September 30, 2014
 
 
($ in millions)
Loss and Loss Expense Incurred
Impact on
Loss and Loss Expense Ratio
 
 
Loss and Loss
Expense
Incurred
Impact on
Loss and Loss Expense Ratio
 
Change in Ratio
 
Catastrophe losses
$
5.8

8.0

pts
 
$
1.6

2.2

pts
5.8

pts
Non-catastrophe property losses
21.0

29.1

 
 
21.7

29.2

 
(0.1
)
 
Flood claims handling fees
(0.8
)
(1.1
)
 
 
(0.8
)
(1.1
)
 

 
Favorable prior year casualty development


 
 
(2.0
)
(2.7
)
 
2.7

 

The GAAP loss and loss expense ratio decreased 0.2 points compared with the same period last year. In addition to the quantitative information below, renewal pure price increases of 6.3% in the Nine Months 2015 and 6.7% in the last three months of 2014 provided earned rate that exceeded our expected loss inflation and improved profitability by approximately 3 points in Nine Months 2015.

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Table of Contents


 
Nine Months ended September 30, 2015
 
Nine Months ended September 30, 2014
 
 
($ in millions)
Loss and Loss Expense Incurred
Impact on
Loss and Loss Expense Ratio
 
 
Loss and Loss
Expense
Incurred
Impact on
Loss and Loss Expense Ratio
 
Change in Ratio
 
Catastrophe losses
$
20.4

9.4

pts
 
$
22.6

10.1

pts
(0.7
)
pts
Non-catastrophe property losses
68.0

31.4

 
 
73.0

32.6

 
(1.2
)
 
Flood claims handling fees
(2.0
)
(0.9
)
 
 
(2.4
)
(1.1
)
 
0.2

 
Favorable prior year casualty development


 
 
(6.0
)
(2.7
)
 
2.7

 

Favorable prior year casualty reserve development in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2014 was driven by the 2010 through 2012 accident years on our personal automobile line of business.

The decrease in the GAAP underwriting expense ratio in Third Quarter 2015 compared with Third Quarter 2014 was due to a year-to-date reallocation of overhead expenses to Standard Commercial Lines to match actual production. The increase in the GAAP underwriting expense ratio in Nine Months 2015 compared with the prior year period was primarily due to the following factors:
Staffing additions, such as Standard Personal Lines marketing specialists, to support our growth initiatives;

Increases in annual incentive compensation expense to employees;

Pension expense increases, which are discussed further in "Financial Highlights of Results for Third Quarter and Nine Months 2015 and Third Quarter and Nine Months 2014" above; and

Increased costs associated with capital improvements.

In addition, declining premiums in this segment, which are driven by lower new business due to competition and the targeted non-renewal actions we have taken on this book of business, have put pressure on the components of our combined ratio.

E&S Insurance Operations
 
 
Quarter ended September 30,
 
 
 
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
 
 
 
($ in thousands)
 
2015
 
2014
 
Change
% or
Points
 
 
2015
 
2014
 
Change
% or
Points
 
GAAP Insurance Operations Results:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NPW
 
$
54,067

 
39,635

 
36

%
 
$
137,199

 
107,479

 
28

%
NPE
 
45,760

 
36,119

 
27

 
 
124,904

 
102,929

 
21

 
Less:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
Loss and loss expense incurred
 
31,952

 
24,443

 
31

 
 
85,374

 
66,723

 
28

 
Net underwriting expenses incurred
 
15,830

 
13,047

 
21

 
 
44,563

 
36,639

 
22

 
Underwriting loss
 
$
(2,022
)
 
(1,371
)
 
(47
)
%
 
$
(5,033
)
 
(433
)
 
(1,062
)
%
GAAP Ratios:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
Loss and loss expense ratio
 
69.8

%
67.7

 
2.1

pts
 
68.4

%
64.8

 
3.6

pts
Underwriting expense ratio
 
34.6

 
36.1

 
(1.5
)
 
 
35.6

 
35.6

 

 
Combined ratio
 
104.4

 
103.8

 
0.6

 
 
104.0

 
100.4

 
3.6

 
Statutory Ratios:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
Loss and loss expense ratio
 
69.9

 
67.6

 
2.3

 
 
68.3

 
64.9

 
3.4

 
Underwriting expense ratio
 
31.2

 
35.3

 
(4.1
)
 
 
33.5

 
35.4

 
(1.9
)
 
Combined ratio
 
101.1

%
102.9

 
(1.8
)
pts
 
101.8

%
100.3

 
1.5

pts

The increases in NPW for both the current quarter and year-to-date periods, compared with the same prior year periods, were primarily driven by direct new business increases of $5.6 million, or 26%, and $18.9 million, or 34%, respectively, coupled with increases in net renewals.

39

Table of Contents


NPE increases in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2015 compared with Third Quarter and Nine Months 2014 were consistent with the fluctuations in NPW for the twelve-month period ended September 30, 2015 compared with the twelve-month period ended September 30, 2014.

The GAAP loss and loss expense ratio increased by 2.1 points in Third Quarter 2015 and 3.6 points in Nine Months 2015 compared with the same periods a year ago. These increases include the impact of renewal pure price increases that are not sufficient to offset expected loss inflation on this segment of our business. Given the nature of the E&S Lines business, approximately half of the business each year is new and half is renewal. Price adequacy is calculated by applying a surcharge to Insurance Services Office ("ISO") rates by class and territory. Currently, new business is estimated to be more adequately priced than renewal business, as renewal rates are only slightly higher than the previous year and still below currently calculated required surcharges. We continue to work within market conditions to achieve our desired level of profitability and believe the new business is priced to achieve that.

In addition, the following fluctuations impacted the loss and loss expense ratio:
 
Third Quarter 2015
 
 
Third Quarter 2014
 
 
 
($ in millions)
Loss and Loss Expense Incurred
Impact on
Loss and Loss Expense Ratio
 
 
Loss and Loss
Expense
Incurred
Impact on
Loss and Loss Expense Ratio
 
Change in Ratio
 
Non-catastrophe property losses
$
6.3

13.7
pts
 
$
3.4

9.2
pts
4.5

pts
Unfavorable prior year casualty development
4.0

8.6
 
 
4.0

11.0
 
(2.4
)
 
Catastrophe losses
0.3

0.7
 
 
0.5

1.4
 
(0.7
)
 

 
Nine Months ended 2015
 
 
Nine Months ended 2014
 
 
 
($ in millions)
Loss and Loss Expense Incurred
Impact on
Loss and Loss Expense Ratio
 
 
Loss and Loss
Expense
Incurred
Impact on
Loss and Loss Expense Ratio
 
Change in Ratio
 
Non-catastrophe property losses
$
18.0

14.4
pts
 
$
14.1

13.7
pts
0.7

pts
Unfavorable prior year casualty development
6.0

4.8
 
 
4.0

3.8
 
1.0

 
Catastrophe losses
2.8

2.2
 
 
2.4

2.3
 
(0.1
)
 

Unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2015 was driven by increased severities in the 2012 through 2014 accident years. Unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2014 was driven by the 2012 and 2013 accident years.

The GAAP and statutory underwriting expense ratios benefited in the current quarter and year-to-date periods from increases in premiums that have outpaced fixed costs.

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Reinsurance

We have successfully completed negotiations of our July 1, 2015 excess of loss treaties, which now incorporate coverage for our E&S Lines insurance operations, as well as Standard Commercial Lines and Standard Personal Lines. The renewal of these treaties included some enhancements in terms and conditions and the same structure as the expiring treaties as follows:

Property Excess of Loss
The property excess of loss treaty ("Property Treaty") continues to provide $38.0 million of coverage in excess of a $2.0 million retention:
The per occurrence cap on the total program is $84.0 million.
The first layer has unlimited reinstatements. The annual aggregate limit for the $30.0 million in excess of $10.0 million second layer is $120.0 million.
The Property Treaty excludes nuclear, biological, chemical, and radiological terrorism losses.

Casualty Excess of Loss
The casualty excess of loss treaty (“Casualty Treaty”) continues to provide $88.0 million of coverage in excess of a $2.0 million retention:
The first through sixth layers provide coverage for 100% of up to $88.0 million in excess of a $2.0 million retention.
The Casualty Treaty excludes nuclear, biological, chemical, and radiological terrorism losses, with the annual aggregate terrorism limits remaining at $208.0 million.


Investments
Our investment philosophy includes certain return and risk objectives for the fixed income, equity, and other investment portfolios. Although yield and income generation remain the key drivers to our investment strategy, our overall philosophy is to invest with a long-term horizon along with predominantly a “buy-and-hold,” low turnover approach. The primary fixed income portfolio return objective is to maximize after-tax investment yield and income while balancing risk. A secondary objective is to meet or exceed a weighted-average benchmark of public fixed income indices. Within the equity portfolio, a dividend-focused strategy is designed to generate consistent dividend income while maintaining a lower risk profile relative to the Standard & Poor's Ratings Services ("S&P") 500 Index. Additional equity strategies are focused on meeting or exceeding strategy-specific benchmarks of public equity indices. The return objective of the other investment portfolio, which includes alternative investments, is to meet or exceed the S&P 500 Index.
Total Invested Assets
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
($ in thousands)
 
September 30, 2015
 
December 31, 2014
 
Change % or Points
 
Total invested assets
 
$
5,013,867

 
4,806,834

 
4

%
Unrealized gain – before tax
 
78,822

 
123,682

 
(36
)
 
Unrealized gain – after tax
 
51,234

 
80,394

 
(36
)
 
Invested assets per dollar of stockholders' equity
 
3.69

 
3.77

 
(2
)

Annualized after-tax yield on investment portfolio
 
1.9

 
2.2

 
(0.3
)
pts
 
The increase in our investment portfolio at September 30, 2015 compared with year-end 2014 was primarily driven by operating cash flow of $259.0 million, partially offset by a decrease in unrealized gains of $44.9 million. Of this $44.9 million, $31.3 million was in our equity portfolio, which was impacted by the volatility in the stock market during the year. In addition, unrealized gains in our fixed income securities portfolio decreased by $13.6 million due to widening credit spreads that more than offset the decline in U.S. Treasury rates during the year.

We continue to structure our portfolio conservatively with a focus on: (i) asset diversification; (ii) investment quality; (iii) liquidity, particularly to meet the cash obligations of our insurance operations segments; (iv) consideration of taxes; and (v) preservation of capital. We believe that we have a high quality and liquid investment portfolio. The breakdown of our investment portfolio is as follows:

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September 30, 2015
 
December 31, 2014
Fixed income securities:
 
 
 
 
U.S. government obligations
 
2
%
2
Foreign government obligations
 
 
1
State and municipal obligations
 
31
 
32
Corporate securities
 
38
 
38
Mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”)
 
15
 
14
Asset-backed securities (“ABS”)
 
5
 
4
Total fixed income securities
 
91
 
91
Equity securities:
 
 
 
 
Common stock
 
4
 
4
Preferred stock1
 
 
Total equity securities
 
4
 
4
Short-term investments
 
3
 
3
Other investments
 
2
 
2
Total
 
100
%
100
1Preferred stock represented less than 1% of our portfolio as of September 30, 2015. We did not hold any of these securities as of December 31, 2014.

Fixed Income Securities
The average duration of the fixed income securities portfolio as of September 30, 2015 was 3.6 years, including short-term investments, compared to the Insurance Subsidiaries’ liability duration of approximately 4.2 years. The current duration of the fixed income securities portfolio is within our historical range, and is monitored and managed to maximize yield while managing interest rate risk at an acceptable level. We maintain a well-diversified portfolio across sectors, credit quality, and maturities that affords us ample liquidity. We typically have a long investment time horizon, and every purchase or sale is made with the intent of maximizing risk-adjusted investment returns in the current market environment while balancing capital preservation.

Our fixed income securities portfolio had a weighted average credit rating of “AA-" as of September 30, 2015. The following table presents the credit ratings of this portfolio:
Fixed Income Security Rating
 
September 30, 2015
 
December 31, 2014
 
Aaa/AAA
 
18
%
17
 
Aa/AA
 
42
 
44
 
A/A
 
26
 
25
 
Baa/BBB
 
13
 
13
 
Ba/BB or below
 
1
 
1
 
Total
 
100
%
100
 

The following table summarizes the fair value, net unrealized gains, and weighted average credit qualities of our AFS fixed income securities at September 30, 2015 and December 31, 2014:
 
 
September 30, 2015
 
December 31, 2014
($ in millions)
 
Fair
Value
 
Net Unrealized
Gains
 
Weighted
Average Credit
Quality
 
Fair
Value
 
Net Unrealized
Gains
 
Weighted Average Credit Quality
AFS Fixed Income Portfolio:
 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 

 
 

 
 
U.S. government and government agencies
 
$
115.1

 
6.1

 
AA+
 
$
124.1

 
7.4

 
AA+
Foreign government
 
19.7

 
0.7

 
AA-
 
27.8

 
0.8

 
AA-
Obligations of states and political subdivisions
 
1,338.2

 
35.0

 
AA
 
1,246.3

 
37.5

 
AA
Corporate securities
 
1,886.2

 
26.3

 
A-
 
1,799.8

 
36.4

 
A-
ABS
 
256.9

 
1.2

 
AAA
 
177.2

 
0.4

 
AAA
Residential MBS ("RMBS")
 
512.9

 
6.0

 
AA+
 
511.3

 
6.2

 
AA+
Commercial MBS ("CMBS")
 
222.0

 
2.0

 
AAA
 
179.6

 
1.6

 
AA+
Total AFS fixed income portfolio
 
$
4,351.0

 
77.3

 
AA-
 
$
4,066.1

 
90.3

 
AA-


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The following tables provide information regarding our held-to-maturity (“HTM”) fixed income securities and their credit qualities at September 30, 2015 and December 31, 2014:
September 30, 2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
($ in millions)
 
Fair
Value
 
Carry
Value
 
Unrecognized Holding Gains
 
Net Unrealized Gains (Losses) in Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income ("AOCI")
 
Total Unrealized/ Unrecognized Gains
 
Weighted Average Credit Quality
HTM Fixed Income Portfolio:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 
Obligations of states and political subdivisions
 
$
214.0

 
206.6

 
7.4

 
1.1

 
8.5

 
AA
Corporate securities
 
20.4

 
17.9

 
2.5

 
(0.2
)
 
2.3

 
A+
ABS
 
1.2

 
1.1

 
0.1

 
(0.2
)
 
(0.1
)
 
AAA
CMBS
 
4.8

 
4.3

 
0.5

 
(0.3
)
 
0.2

 
AAA
Total HTM fixed income portfolio
 
$
240.4

 
229.9

 
10.5

 
0.4

 
10.9

 
AA
 
December 31, 2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
($ in millions)
 
Fair
Value
 
Carry
Value
 
Unrecognized Holding Gains
 
Net Unrealized Gains (Losses) in AOCI
 
Total Unrealized/ Unrecognized Gains
 
Weighted Average Credit Quality
HTM Portfolio:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 
Foreign government
 
$
5.4

 
5.3

 
0.1

 

 
0.1

 
AA+
Obligations of states and political subdivisions
 
299.1

 
287.4

 
11.7

 
2.1

 
13.8

 
AA
Corporate securities
 
21.4

 
18.6

 
2.8

 
(0.3
)
 
2.5

 
A+
ABS
 
2.9

 
2.4

 
0.5

 
(0.5
)
 

 
AAA
CMBS
 
5.2

 
4.4

 
0.8

 
(0.4
)
 
0.4

 
AAA
Total HTM portfolio
 
$
334.0

 
318.1

 
15.9

 
0.9

 
16.8

 
AA

The sector composition and credit quality of our major asset categories shown above did not significantly change from December 31, 2014. Our top 10 state exposures still represent approximately 53% of the total municipal bond portfolio and have an average rating of "AA." A portion of our municipal bond portfolio contains insurance enhancements; however, the ratings of the securities with and without insurance remained unchanged as we generally purchase securities based on their underlying credit quality. For details regarding this information, see Item 7A. “Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk.” of our 2014 Annual Report.

In addition, as of September 30, 2015 and December 31, 2014, we did not hold any securities in our fixed income or equity portfolios issued by Greece, Puerto Rico, or China.

Equity Securities
Our equity securities portfolio was $222.0 million at September 30, 2015 and $191.4 million at December 31, 2014, which was 4% of total invested assets at each date. During Nine Months 2015, we purchased $194.3 million of securities and sold securities that had an original cost of $148.3 million primarily as a result of a change in our dividend equity strategy earlier this year from a quantitative, model-driven stock selection strategy to a fundamentally-based stock selection approach that incorporates an assessment of the sustainability and growth rate of a company’s dividends based on expected future cash flows.

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Unrealized/Unrecognized Losses
The following table presents amortized cost and fair value information for our AFS fixed income securities that were in an unrealized loss position at September 30, 2015 by contractual maturity:
($ in thousands)
 
Amortized
Cost
 
Fair
Value
Unrealized Loss
One year or less
 
$
56,969

 
56,910

59

Due after one year through five years
 
468,969

 
464,753

4,216

Due after five years through ten years
 
357,187

 
350,095

7,092

Due after ten years
 
10,177

 
10,157

20

Total
 
$
893,302

 
881,915

11,387

 
The following table presents amortized cost and fair value information for our HTM fixed income securities that were in an unrealized/unrecognized loss position at September 30, 2015 by contractual maturity:
($ in thousands)
 
Amortized
Cost
 
Fair
Value
Unrecognized/Unrealized Loss
One year or less
 
$
946

 
942

4

Due after one year through five years
 

 


Total
 
$
946

 
942

4


We have reviewed the securities in a loss position within our fixed income and equity portfolios, in accordance with our OTTI policy, which is discussed in Note 2. “Summary of Significant Accounting Policies” within Item 8. “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.” of our 2014 Annual Report. We have concluded that these securities were temporarily impaired as of September 30, 2015. For additional information regarding the unrealized/unrecognized losses in our AFS and HTM portfolios, see Note 4. “Investments” in Item 1. “Financial Statements.” of this Form 10-Q.

Other Investments
As of September 30, 2015, other investments of $85.1 million represented 2% of our total invested assets.  In addition to the capital that we have already invested to date, we are contractually obligated to invest up to an additional $76.5 million in our other investments portfolio through commitments that currently expire at various dates through 2028. For a description of our seven alternative investment strategies, as well as redemption, restrictions, and fund liquidations, refer to Note 5. “Investments” in Item 8. “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.” of our 2014 Annual Report.

Net Investment Income
The components of net investment income earned for the indicated periods were as follows:
 
 
Quarter ended September 30,
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
($ in thousands)
 
2015
 
2014
 
2015
 
2014
Fixed income securities
 
$
30,601

 
30,706

 
92,227

 
95,515

Equity securities
 
2,370

 
1,909

 
6,546

 
5,094

Short-term investments
 
24

 
15

 
72

 
48

Other investments
 
1,337

 
3,906

 
(781
)
 
12,677

Investment expenses
 
(2,271
)
 
(2,244
)
 
(6,856
)
 
(6,734
)
Net investment income earned – before tax
 
32,061

 
34,292

 
91,208

 
106,600

Net investment income tax expense
 
(7,506
)
 
(8,527
)
 
(20,666
)
 
(26,928
)
Net investment income earned – after tax
 
$
24,555

 
25,765

 
70,542

 
79,672

Effective tax rate
 
23.4
%
 
24.9

 
22.7

 
25.3

Annualized after-tax yield on fixed income securities
 
2.1

 
2.2

 
2.1

 
2.3

Annualized after-tax yield on investment portfolio
 
2.0

 
2.2

 
1.9

 
2.3


Net investment income before tax decreased in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2015 compared with the same prior year periods. Net investment income was negatively impacted by lower income from the alternative investments within our other investments portfolio. In particular, our energy-related limited partnerships have been negatively impacted by declining oil prices. Additionally, lower reinvestment yields on our fixed income securities portfolio continue to put pressure on investment income.

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Table of Contents


Realized Gains and Losses
Our general philosophy for sales of securities is to reduce our exposure to securities and sectors based on economic evaluations and when the fundamentals for that security or sector have deteriorated, or to opportunistically trade out of securities to other securities with better economic return characteristics. We typically have a long investment time horizon, and every purchase or sale is made with the intent of maximizing risk-adjusted investment returns in the current market environment while balancing capital preservation. Net realized gains decreased by $14.9 million in Third Quarter 2015 and $11.2 million in Nine Months 2015, compared with the respective prior year periods, driven by the sale of AFS equity securities in Third Quarter and Nine Months 2014 related to the quantitative rebalancing of our dividend yield strategy holdings within our equity portfolio. The decrease in Nine Months 2015 also includes OTTI charges primarily within our equity portfolio that were higher than last year by $6.4 million. Refer to Note 4. "Investments" in Item 1. "Financial Statements." of this Form 10-Q for further details.

We regularly review our entire investment portfolio for declines in fair value. If we believe that a decline in the value of a particular investment is other than temporary, we record it as an OTTI, through realized losses in earnings for the credit-related portion and through unrealized losses in other comprehensive income ("OCI") for the non-credit related portion for fixed income securities. If there is a decline in fair value of an equity security that we do not intend to hold, or if we determine that the decline is other than temporary, we write down the cost of the investment to fair value and record the charge through earnings as a component of realized losses.
 
For further discussion of our realized gains and losses, as well as our OTTI methodology, see Note 2. “Summary of Significant Accounting Policies” in Item 8. “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.” of our 2014 Annual Report. For additional information about our OTTI charges, see Note 4. "Investments" in Item 1. "Financial Statements." of this Form 10-Q.

Federal Income Taxes
The following table provides information regarding federal income taxes:
 
Quarter ended September 30,
 
Nine Months ended September 30,
($ in million)
2015
 
2014
 
2015
 
2014
Federal income tax expense
$
18.8

 
22.2

 
48.4

 
39.5

Effective tax rate
29
%
 
29

 
29

 
28


Federal income tax expense decreased in Third Quarter 2015 compared with the same prior year period due to lower pre-tax income, primarily driven by a decrease in net realized gains. Federal income tax expense increased in Nine Months 2015 compared with the same prior year period due to higher pre-tax income, primarily driven by an improvement in our underwriting results. The effective tax rate for Third Quarter 2015 compared with Third Quarter 2014 remained flat, while the effective tax rate for Nine Months 2015 compared with Nine Months 2014 increased slightly, as tax-advantaged income remained flat compared to the increase in overall pre-tax income. The majority of our differences from the statutory rate are from recurring nontaxable items, such as tax-advantaged interest and dividends received deductions.

We believe that our future effective tax rate will continue to be impacted by similar items, assuming no significant changes to tax laws occur that would impact our tax-advantaged investments.

Financial Condition, Liquidity, Short-term Borrowings, and Capital Resources
Capital resources and liquidity reflect our ability to generate cash flows from business operations, borrow funds at competitive rates, and raise new capital to meet operating and growth needs.
 
Liquidity
We manage liquidity with a focus on generating sufficient cash flows to meet the short-term and long-term cash requirements of our business operations. Our cash and short-term investment position of $141 million at September 30, 2015 was comprised of $32 million at Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (the "Parent") and $109 million at the Insurance Subsidiaries. Short-term investments are generally maintained in "AAA" rated money market funds approved by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners. The Parent continues to maintain a fixed income security investment portfolio containing high-quality, highly-liquid government and corporate fixed income securities to generate additional yield. This portfolio amounted to $64 million at September 30, 2015, compared with $50 million at December 31, 2014.
 
Sources of cash for the Parent have historically consisted of dividends from the Insurance Subsidiaries, borrowings under lines of credit and loan agreements with certain Insurance Subsidiaries, and the issuance of stock and debt securities. We continue to monitor these sources, giving consideration to our long-term liquidity and capital preservation strategies.

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Table of Contents


We currently anticipate the Insurance Subsidiaries will pay $58 million in total dividends to the Parent in 2015. Cash dividends of $43 million were paid during Nine Months 2015. As of December 31, 2014, our allowable ordinary maximum dividend was $162 million for 2015.
Any dividends to the Parent are subject to the approval and/or review of the insurance regulators in the respective domiciliary states and are generally payable only from earned surplus as reported in the statutory annual statements of those subsidiaries as of the preceding December 31. Although past dividends have historically been met with regulatory approval, there is no assurance that future dividends that may be declared will be approved. For additional information regarding dividend restrictions, refer to Note 20. “Statutory Financial Information, Capital Requirements, and Restrictions on Dividends and Transfers of Funds” in Item 8. “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.” of our 2014 Annual Report.
The Parent had no private or public issuances of stock or debt instruments during Nine Months 2015 and there were no borrowings under its $30 million line of credit ("Line of Credit").

We have two Insurance Subsidiaries domiciled in Indiana ("Indiana Subsidiaries") that are members of the FHLBI. These Insurance Subsidiaries are Selective Insurance Company of South Carolina ("SICSC") and Selective Insurance Company of the Southeast ("SICSE"). Membership in the FHLBI provides these subsidiaries with access to additional liquidity. The Indiana Subsidiaries' aggregate investment of $2.8 million provides them with the ability to borrow approximately 20 times the total amount of the FHLBI common stock purchased, at comparatively low borrowing rates. All borrowings from the FHLBI are required to be secured by certain investments. For additional information regarding the required collateral, refer to Note 4. "Investments" in Item 1. "Financial Statements." of this Form 10-Q.
  
The Parent's Line of Credit agreement permits collateralized borrowings by the Indiana Subsidiaries from the FHLBI so long as the aggregate amount borrowed does not exceed 10% of the respective Indiana Subsidiary's admitted assets from the preceding calendar year. Admitted assets amounted to $564.3 million for SICSC and $429.8 million for SICSE as of December 31, 2014, for a borrowing capacity of approximately $99 million, of which $60 million is currently outstanding (including $15 million that was borrowed during the first quarter of 2015). Accordingly, the Indiana Subsidiaries have the ability to borrow an additional $39 million before the Line of Credit borrowing limit is met. The Parent has the ability to borrow an additional $48 million from the Indiana Subsidiaries under lending agreements approved by the Indiana Department of Insurance. Similar to the Line of Credit agreement, these lending agreements limit borrowings by the Parent from the Indiana Subsidiaries to 10% of the admitted assets of the respective Indiana Subsidiary. For additional information regarding the Parent's Line of Credit, refer to the section below entitled “Short-term Borrowings.”

The Insurance Subsidiaries also generate liquidity through insurance float, which is created by collecting premiums and earning investment income before losses are paid. The period of the float can extend over many years. Our investment portfolio consists of maturity dates that continually provide a source of cash flows for claims payments in the ordinary course of business. The duration of the fixed income securities portfolio including short-term investments was 3.6 years as of September 30, 2015, while the liabilities of the Insurance Subsidiaries have a duration of 4.2 years. In addition, the Insurance Subsidiaries purchase reinsurance coverage for protection against any significantly large claims or catastrophes that may occur during the year.
 
The liquidity generated from the sources discussed above is used, among other things, to pay dividends to our shareholders. Dividends on shares of the Parent's common stock are declared and paid at the discretion of the Board of Directors based on our operating results, financial condition, capital requirements, contractual restrictions, and other relevant factors. On October     28, 2015, our Board of Directors declared, for stockholders of record as of November 13, 2015, a $0.15 per share dividend to be paid on December 1, 2015. This is a 7% increase compared with the dividend declared on July 29, 2015.
 
Our ability to meet our interest and principal repayment obligations on our debt, as well as our ability to continue to pay dividends to our stockholders, is dependent on liquidity at the Parent coupled with the ability of the Insurance Subsidiaries to pay dividends, if necessary, and/or the availability of other sources of liquidity to the Parent. Scheduled repayments of our FHLBI borrowings include $15 million in July 2016 and $45 million in December 2016. Subsequent to these payments, our next principal repayment is due in 2034. Restrictions on the ability of the Insurance Subsidiaries to declare and pay dividends, without alternative liquidity options, could materially affect our ability to service debt and pay dividends on common stock.


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Table of Contents

Short-term Borrowings
Our Line of Credit with Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent, and Branch Banking and Trust Company (BB&T), was renewed effective September 26, 2013 with a borrowing capacity of $30 million, which can be increased to $50 million with the approval of both lending partners.

The Line of Credit provides the Parent with an additional source of short-term liquidity. The interest rate on our Line of Credit varies and is based on, among other factors, the Parent’s debt ratings. The Line of Credit expires on September 26, 2017. There were no balances outstanding under the Line of Credit at any time during Nine Months 2015.
 
The Line of Credit agreement contains representations, warranties, and covenants that are customary for credit facilities of this type, including, without limitation, financial covenants under which we are obligated to maintain a minimum consolidated net worth, a minimum combined statutory surplus, and a maximum ratio of consolidated debt to total capitalization, as well as covenants limiting our ability to: (i) merge or liquidate; (ii) incur debt or liens; (iii) dispose of assets; (iv) make certain investments and acquisitions; and (v) engage in transactions with affiliates.
 
The table below outlines information regarding certain of the covenants in the Line of Credit:
 
Required as of September 30, 2015
Actual as of September 30, 2015
Consolidated net worth
$949 million
$1.4 billion
Statutory surplus
Not less than $750 million
$1.4 billion
Debt-to-capitalization ratio1
Not to exceed 35%
22.9%
A.M. Best financial strength rating
Minimum of A-
A
1 
Calculated in accordance with the Line of Credit agreement.

Capital Resources
Capital resources provide protection for policyholders, furnish the financial strength to support the business of underwriting insurance risks, and facilitate continued business growth. At September 30, 2015, we had statutory surplus of $1.4 billion, GAAP stockholders’ equity of $1.4 billion, and total debt of $394 million, which equates to a debt-to-capital ratio of approximately 22%.
 
Our cash requirements include, but are not limited to, principal and interest payments on various notes payable, dividends to stockholders, payment of claims, payment of commitments under limited partnership agreements and capital expenditures, as well as other operating expenses, which include commissions to our distribution partners, labor costs, premium taxes, general and administrative expenses, and income taxes. For further details regarding our cash requirements, refer to the section below entitled, “Contractual Obligations, Contingent Liabilities, and Commitments.”
 
We continually monitor our cash requirements and the amount of capital resources that we maintain at the holding company and operating subsidiary levels. As part of our long-term capital strategy, we strive to maintain capital metrics, relative to the macroeconomic environment, that support our targeted financial strength. Based on our analysis and market conditions, we may take a variety of actions, including, but not limited to, contributing capital to the Insurance Subsidiaries in our insurance operations, issuing additional debt and/or equity securities, repurchasing shares of the Parent’s common stock, and increasing stockholders’ dividends.
 
Our capital management strategy is intended to protect the interests of the policyholders of the Insurance Subsidiaries and our stockholders, while enhancing our financial strength and underwriting capacity.
 
Book value per share increased to $23.77 as of September 30, 2015, from $22.54 as of December 31, 2014, due to $2.08 in net income, partially offset by $0.51 in unrealized losses in our investment portfolio and $0.42 in dividends to our shareholders.

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Table of Contents


Ratings
We are rated by major rating agencies that issue opinions on our financial strength, operating performance, strategic position, and ability to meet policyholder obligations. We believe that our ability to write insurance business is most influenced by our rating from A.M. Best. In the second quarter of 2015, A.M. Best reaffirmed our rating of "A (Excellent)," their third highest of 13 financial strength ratings, with a “stable” outlook. The rating reflects A.M. Best's view that we have an excellent level of risk-adjusted capitalization, disciplined underwriting focus, targeted regional markets with strong distribution partner relationships, and consistently profitable operating performance. We have been rated “A” or higher by A.M. Best for the past 85 years. A downgrade from A.M. Best to a rating below “A-” is an event of default under our Line of Credit and could affect our ability to write new business with customers and/or distribution partners, some of whom are required (under various third-party agreements) to maintain insurance with a carrier that maintains a specified A.M. Best minimum rating.

Ratings by other major rating agencies are as follows:
Fitch Ratings ("Fitch") – Our “A+” rating was reaffirmed in Third Quarter 2015 with a stable outlook by Fitch. In taking this action, Fitch cited our improved underwriting results across all segments, solid capitalization with strong growth in stockholders' equity, and continued improvement in leverage and interest coverage metrics.
S&P's Ratings Services – On October 15, 2015, S&P issued a report on Selective maintaining our financial strength rating as “A-” with a positive outlook. The rating reflects S&P's view of our strong business risk profile, strong competitive position, and very strong capital and earnings. The positive outlook for the rating reflects S&P's view of our ongoing efforts to improve geographic and product diversification and reduce risk concentrations in catastrophe prone areas. In addition, the positive outlook reflects S&P's expectation that we will steadily improve our operating performance and that our capital adequacy will remain redundant at a very strong level.
Moody's Investor Service ("Moody's") – Our "A2" financial strength rating was reaffirmed in the second quarter of 2015 by Moody's. In taking this action, Moody's cited our solid regional franchise with established independent agency support, solid risk adjusted capitalization, strong invested asset quality, and good underwriting profitability. The outlook was revised to stable from negative, reflecting Moody's view of our improved profitability as a result of our stronger price adequacy in commercial lines, re-underwriting initiatives, and claims processing improvements.
Our S&P, Moody's, and Fitch financial strength and associated credit ratings affect our ability to access capital markets.  The interest rate on our Line of Credit varies and is based on, among other factors, the Parent's debt ratings. There can be no assurance that our ratings will continue for any given period of time or that they will not be changed.  It is possible that positive or negative ratings actions by one or more of the rating agencies may occur in the future.

Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements
At September 30, 2015 and December 31, 2014, we did not have any material relationships with unconsolidated entities or financial partnerships, also referred to as structured finance or special purpose entities, which would have been established for the purpose of facilitating off-balance sheet arrangements or for other contractually narrow or limited purposes. As such, we are not exposed to any material financing, liquidity, market, or credit risk that could arise if we had engaged in such relationships.
 
Contractual Obligations, Contingent Liabilities, and Commitments
Our future cash payments associated with: (i) loss and loss expense reserves; (ii) contractual obligations pursuant to operating leases for office space and equipment; (iii) notes payable; and (iv) contractual obligations related to our alternative and other investments portfolio have not materially changed since December 31, 2014. We expect to have the capacity to repay and/or refinance these obligations as they come due.
 
We have issued no material guarantees on behalf of others and have no trading activities involving non-exchange traded contracts accounted for at fair value. We have no material transactions with related parties other than those disclosed in Note 17. "Related Party Transactions" included in Item 8. "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data." of our 2014 Annual Report.

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ITEM 3.    QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK.
There have been no material changes in the information about market risk set forth in our 2014 Annual Report.

ITEM 4.   CONTROLS AND PROCEDURES.
Our management, with the participation of our Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer, has evaluated the effectiveness of our disclosure controls and procedures (as such term is defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e) under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (“Exchange Act”)), as of the end of the period covered by this report. In performing this evaluation, management used the criteria set forth by the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission in Internal Control Integrated Framework ("COSO Framework") in 2013. Based on this evaluation, our Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer have concluded that, as of the end of such period, our disclosure controls and procedures are: (i) effective in recording, processing, summarizing, and reporting information on a timely basis that we are required to disclose in the reports that we file or submit under the Exchange Act; and (ii) effective in ensuring that information that we are required to disclose in the reports that we file or submit under the Exchange Act is accumulated and communicated to our management, including our Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer, as appropriate, to allow timely decisions regarding required disclosure. No changes in our internal control over financial reporting (as such term is defined in Rule 13a-15(f) of the Exchange Act) occurred during Nine Months 2015 that materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, our internal control over financial reporting.


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PART II - OTHER INFORMATION

ITEM 1. LEGAL PROCEEDINGS.
In the ordinary course of conducting business, we are named as defendants in various legal proceedings. Most of these proceedings are claims litigation involving our Insurance Subsidiaries as either: (i) liability insurers defending or providing indemnity for third-party claims brought against our customers; or (ii) insurers defending first-party coverage claims brought against them. We account for such activity through the establishment of unpaid loss and loss expense reserves. We expect that the ultimate liability, if any, with respect to such ordinary course claims litigation, after consideration of provisions made for potential losses and costs of defense, will not be material to our consolidated financial condition, results of operations, or cash flows.
 
Our Insurance Subsidiaries are also from time to time involved in other legal actions, some of which assert claims for substantial amounts. These actions include, among others, putative class actions seeking certification of a state or national class. Such putative class actions have alleged, for example, improper reimbursement of medical providers paid under workers compensation and personal and commercial automobile insurance policies. Our Insurance Subsidiaries are also involved from time to time in individual actions in which extra-contractual damages, punitive damages, or penalties are sought, such as claims alleging bad faith in the handling of insurance claims. We believe that we have valid defenses to these cases. We expect that the ultimate liability, if any, with respect to such lawsuits, after consideration of provisions made for estimated losses, will not be material to our consolidated financial condition. Nonetheless, given the large or indeterminate amounts sought in certain of these actions, and the inherent unpredictability of litigation, an adverse outcome in certain matters could, from time to time, have a material adverse effect on our consolidated results of operations or cash flows in particular quarterly or annual periods. As of September 30, 2015, we do not believe the Company was involved in any legal action that could have a material adverse effect on our consolidated financial condition, results of operations, or cash flows.

ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS.
Certain risk factors exist that can have a significant impact on our business, liquidity, capital resources, results of operations, financial condition, and debt ratings. The impact of these risk factors also could impact certain actions that we take as part of our long-term capital strategy, including but not limited to, contributing capital to any or all of the Insurance Subsidiaries, issuing additional debt and/or equity securities, repurchasing our equity securities, redeeming our fixed income securities, or increasing or decreasing stockholders dividends. We operate in a continually changing business environment and new risk factors emerge from time to time. Consequently, we can neither predict such new risk factors nor assess the potential future impact, if any, they might have on our business. There have been no material changes from the risk factors disclosed in Item 1A. “Risk Factors.” in our 2014 Annual Report other than as discussed below.
We face risks regarding our flood business because of uncertainties regarding the NFIP.
We are the sixth largest insurance group participating in the WYO arrangement of the NFIP, which is managed by the Mitigation Division of Federal Emergency Management Agency (“FEMA”) in the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. For WYO participation, we receive an expense allowance for policies written and a servicing fee for claims administered. Under the program, all losses are 100% reinsured by the Federal Government. During Nine Months 2015, the expense allowance was 30.8% of direct premiums written ("DPW") and the servicing fee was the combination of 0.9% of DPW and 1.5% of incurred losses.

The NFIP is funded by U.S Congress and in 2012, U.S. Congress passed, and the President signed, the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act of 2012 (“Biggert-Waters Act”). The Biggert-Waters Act: (i) extended NFIP funding to September 30, 2017; and (ii) moved the program to more market based rates for certain flood policyholders. FEMA implemented these rates throughout 2013, which created significant public discontent and Congressional concern over the impact of the new rates on NFIP customers.

Consequently, U.S Congress passed and, on March 21, 2014, the President signed into law, the Homeowner Flood Insurance Affordability Act of 2014 (“Flood Affordability Act”). The Flood Affordability Act substantially modifies certain provisions of the Biggert-Waters Act, including the reversal of certain rate increases resulting in premium refunds for many NFIP policyholders that began after October 1, 2014.  Effective April 2015, the Flood Affordability Act effectuated certain changes to the NFIP, including: (i) an increase in the Reserve Fund Assessment; (ii) implementation of an annual surcharge on all new and renewal policies; (iii) an additional deductible option; and (iv) increases in the federal policy fee and basic rates.


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As a WYO carrier, we are required to follow certain NFIP procedures when administering flood policies and claims. Some of these requirements may differ from our normal business practices and may present a reputational risk to our brand. Insurance companies are regulated by states; however, the NFIP is a federal program. Consequently, we have the risk that regulatory positions taken by the NFIP and a state regulator on the same issue may conflict.

Despite the passage of the Flood Affordability Act, the role of the NFIP remains under scrutiny by policymakers. The uncertainty behind the public policy debate and politics of flood insurance reform make it difficult for us to predict the future of the NFIP and our continued participation in the program.
Changes in tax legislation initiatives could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
We are subject to the tax laws and regulations of U.S. federal, state, and local governments, which may change in ways that adversely impact us. For example, federal tax legislation could be enacted that reduces the existing statutory U.S. federal corporate income tax rate from 35%, thereby reducing any deferred tax assets. This would require that we recognize, in full, a reduction of a previously-recognized federal tax benefit in the period when enacted, and, along with other changes in the tax rules that may increase our actual tax expense, could materially and adversely affect our results of operations.

In addition, our investment portfolio has benefited from tax exemptions and certain other tax laws, including, but not limited to, those governing dividends received deductions and tax-advantaged municipal bond interest. Federal and/or state tax legislation could be enacted that would lessen or eliminate some or all of the tax advantages currently benefiting us. This could negatively impact the value of our investment portfolio and, in turn, materially and adversely impact our results of operations.

We are subject to the risk that legislation will be passed that significantly changes insurance regulation and adversely
impacts our business, financial condition, and/or the results of operations.
In 2013, the Department of Housing and Urban Development ("HUD") finalized a new "disparate impact" regulation that may adversely impact insurers' ability to differentiate pricing for homeowners policies using traditional risk selection analysis. Various legal challenges to this regulation continue to be pursued in courts, including the applicability of the regulation to the business of insurance. It is uncertain to what extent the application of this regulation will impact the property and casualty industry and underwriting practices, but it could increase litigation costs, force changes in underwriting practices, and impair our ability to write homeowners business profitably. The outcome of the pending legal challenges and potential rulemaking cannot be predicted at this time.

ITEM 2. UNREGISTERED SALES OF EQUITY SECURITIES AND USE OF PROCEEDS.
The following table provides information regarding our purchases of our common stock in Third Quarter 2015:
Period
 
Total Number of
Shares Purchased1
 
Average Price
Paid per Share
 
Total Number of
Shares Purchased
as Part of Publicly
Announced Programs
 
Maximum Number of
Shares that May Yet
Be Purchased Under the Announced Programs
July 1 – 31, 2015
 

 
$

 

 

August 1 - 31, 2015
 
9,371

 
31.54

 

 

September 1 - 30, 2015
 
308

 
30.89

 

 

Total
 
9,679

 
$
31.52

 

 


1During Third Quarter 2015, 308 shares were purchased from employees in connection with the vesting of restricted stock units and 9,371 shares were purchased from employees in connection with option exercises. These repurchases were made to satisfy tax withholding obligations and/or option costs with respect to those employees. These shares were not purchased as part of any publicly announced program. The shares that were purchased in connection with the vesting of restricted stock units were purchased at fair market value as defined in the Selective Insurance Group, Inc. 2005 Omnibus Stock Plan As Amended and Restated Effective as of May 1, 2010. The shares purchased in connection with the option exercises were purchased at the current market prices of our common stock on the dates the options were exercised.

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Item 6. EXHIBITS.
Exhibit No.  
 
 
* 11
 
Statement Re: Computation of Per Share Earnings.
* 31.1
 
Certification of Chief Executive Officer in accordance with Section 302 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.
* 31.2
 
Certification of Chief Financial Officer in accordance with Section 302 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.
* 32.1
 
Certification of Chief Executive Officer in accordance with Section 906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.
* 32.2
 
Certification of Chief Financial Officer in accordance with Section 906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.
** 101.INS
 
XBRL Instance Document.
** 101.SCH
 
XBRL Taxonomy Extension Schema Document.
** 101.CAL
 
XBRL Taxonomy Extension Calculation Linkbase Document.
** 101.LAB
 
XBRL Taxonomy Extension Label Linkbase Document.
** 101.PRE
 
XBRL Taxonomy Extension Presentation Linkbase Document.
** 101.DEF
 
XBRL Taxonomy Extension Definition Linkbase Document.
 
* Filed herewith.
** Furnished and not filed herewith.


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SIGNATURES
 
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this Report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.
 
SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP, INC.
Registrant 
 
By: /s/ Gregory E. Murphy
October 29, 2015
Gregory E. Murphy
 
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer
 
 
 
By: /s/ Dale A. Thatcher
October 29, 2015
Dale A. Thatcher
 
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
 
(principal accounting officer and principal financial officer)
 
 



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