Half of the 2023 U.S. Pharmaceutical Launch Class Underperforms Pre-Launch First Year Forecasts but the Needle Is Moving

“Moving the Needle: Lessons from the 2023 Launch Class” White Paper Now Available

Trinity Life Sciences, the leader in strategy, insights and analytics for the life sciences industry, reveals that 50% of the 2023 U.S. pharmaceutical launch class underperformed their pre-launch first year forecast while 39% overperformed. This is an improvement from prior years, with 54% underperforming and 35% overperforming when evaluating new product launches in the U.S. from 2020–2023. Progress was driven by a notable increase in overperformance by specialty and large market products and first launch companies.

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“Moving the Needle: Lessons from the 2023 Launch Class” white paper now available from Trinity Life Sciences. (Graphic: Business Wire)

The findings were released in Trinity’s new white paper, titled Moving the Needle: Lessons from the 2023 Launch Class. The paper examines the performance of new products launched in 2023 and explores cases of products that achieved first year launch success. According to the white paper, two main factors contributed to success in first year performance: 1) demand in high unmet need spaces and 2) launch experience and a strong track record in more established or complex markets.

Launches in high unmet need spaces saw the most success in their first year regardless of the type or size of the company bringing the product to market or the type or size of the market. These launches included products with strong clinical value for conditions without existing treatments, such as RSV vaccines, Friedreich’s Ataxia, Geographic Atrophy, Rett Syndrome and Demodex blepharitis.

For more established or competitive markets, having launch experience in the therapeutic areas and/or an existing track record of launching into challenging spaces enabled success. Established companies, particularly in oncology, leverage their size and existing relationships and infrastructure to establish themselves as “the player” in certain therapeutic areas. The white paper also addresses the challenges faced by emerging biotech companies launching in established markets and provides advice on how to achieve success on a longer timeline to enable the opportunity to build and scale.

"It’s encouraging to see that the needle is moving, and we are seeing how companies are overcoming challenges through innovation and prioritization,” said Krista Perry, Partner and Head of Launch Excellence at Trinity Life Sciences. “Companies should also recognize that with a well-orchestrated launch plan and realistic expectations it is possible to achieve commercial success after a slow start. We have seen ‘turnaround’ success stories from products that underperformed initial launch forecasts but recovered to become longer-term successes.”

This white paper marks Trinity’s third consecutive year in conducting its launch performance analysis. Looking ahead, Trinity plans to continue to analyze the factors that contribute to new product launch success and examine whether the lessons learned will shape strategies and move the needle for the 2024 class and beyond.

Life sciences executives are welcome to download the Moving the Needle: Lessons from the 2023 Launch Class white paper by clicking here and Trinity’s prior white papers focused on Launch Excellence by clicking here.

Members of the media can contact Elizabeth Marshall for the white paper at emarshall@TrinityLifeSciences.com.

About Trinity Life Sciences

With almost 30 years of expertise, a best-in-the-business team and unrivaled access to data and analytics, Trinity Life Sciences is a modern partner to companies in the life sciences industry. Trinity combines strategy, insights and analytics to help life science executives with clinical and commercial decision-making. We serve over 350 pharmaceutical, biotech and medical device clients, helping them develop the right drugs and devices for today’s market and optimize them once in market. We have a diverse staff of over 1200 people and 11 global offices across the U.S., Europe and Asia. Ultimately, we know that every decision our clients make impacts a life, and when we help our clients achieve their goals, the world benefits. To learn more about how Trinity is elevating the industry and driving evidence to action, visit TrinityLifeSciences.com.

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