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3 Reasons PNTG is Risky and 1 Stock to Buy Instead

PNTG Cover Image

Over the past six months, The Pennant Group’s shares (currently trading at $26.51) have posted a disappointing 9.9% loss, well below the S&P 500’s 11.3% gain. This may have investors wondering how to approach the situation.

Is there a buying opportunity in The Pennant Group, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Check out our in-depth research report to see what our analysts have to say, it’s free for active Edge members.

Why Is The Pennant Group Not Exciting?

Even though the stock has become cheaper, we're swiping left on The Pennant Group for now. Here are three reasons there are better opportunities than PNTG and a stock we'd rather own.

1. Fewer Distribution Channels Limit its Ceiling

Larger companies benefit from economies of scale, where fixed costs like infrastructure, technology, and administration are spread over a higher volume of goods or services, reducing the cost per unit. Scale can also lead to bargaining power with suppliers, greater brand recognition, and more investment firepower. A virtuous cycle can ensue if a scaled company plays its cards right.

With just $847.3 million in revenue over the past 12 months, The Pennant Group is a small company in an industry where scale matters. This makes it difficult to build trust with customers because healthcare is heavily regulated, complex, and resource-intensive.

2. Mediocre Free Cash Flow Margin Limits Reinvestment Potential

Free cash flow isn't a prominently featured metric in company financials and earnings releases, but we think it's telling because it accounts for all operating and capital expenses, making it tough to manipulate. Cash is king.

The Pennant Group has shown mediocre cash profitability over the last five years, giving the company limited opportunities to return capital to shareholders. Its free cash flow margin averaged 1.3%, subpar for a healthcare business.

The Pennant Group Trailing 12-Month Free Cash Flow Margin

3. Previous Growth Initiatives Haven’t Impressed

Growth gives us insight into a company’s long-term potential, but how capital-efficient was that growth? Enter ROIC, a metric showing how much operating profit a company generates relative to the money it has raised (debt and equity).

The Pennant Group historically did a mediocre job investing in profitable growth initiatives. Its five-year average ROIC was 5.3%, somewhat low compared to the best healthcare companies that consistently pump out 20%+.

The Pennant Group Trailing 12-Month Return On Invested Capital

Final Judgment

The Pennant Group isn’t a terrible business, but it isn’t one of our picks. Following the recent decline, the stock trades at 20.4× forward P/E (or $26.51 per share). While this valuation is reasonable, we don’t really see a big opportunity at the moment. We're fairly confident there are better investments elsewhere. Let us point you toward a fast-growing restaurant franchise with an A+ ranch dressing sauce.

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