Panic with Friends – Investing for Profit and Joy
I’m excited to have my fishing buddy, Lewis Johnson, back for another round of Panic. He runs over two billion dollars as the CIO of Capital Wealth Advisors.
Lewis was first on Panic with Friends in November of 2020. Back then we were just realizing COVID might not kill us all. The Fed was printing money and the technology growth stocks went up every day . We talked value and growth and commodities because Lewis understands cycles. He noted we were in the worst stretch of value stocks versus growth stocks in the last 200 years and correctly nailed the coming change and boom in commodities that would come.  In this episode we talk cycles, supply chains, commodities, the strong dollar, valuation compression and the deglobalization cycle we find ourselves in now.
What Lewis has is expertise, which is why I enjoy talking to investors like him at different points in time to expand my knowledge.
You can listen to the podcast here on Spotify or Apple podcast and now all the episodes are on my YouTube channel as well. You can click subscribe on any of these channels and get the podcast alert each week.
You can also listen right here on the blog:
More details on the podcast are below…
Guest: Lewis Johnson
Profile: CIO of Capital Wealth Advisors
Where to Find Him: LinkedIn, Twitter
What’s Lewis Panicked About?: The Fed.
Show Notes:
- Introduction (00:40)
- 2020 Take – Value & Growth (04:17)
- Welcome Lewis (07:00)
- Cycles have a logic of their own (08:19)
- Commodities & Value back in favor (10:04)
- A Deglobalization Cycle underway (12:11)
- A chain of Deglobalization events (13:22)
- Positioning and asset allocation (16:47)
- The nature of the cycle (17:50)
- Taking a defensive stance (18:07)
- Real Estate bubble in China (18:29)
- De-risking early (20:12)
- Short squeeze in Commodities (20:44)
- The Fed can’t print corn (21:23)
- European energy supply crisis (21:46)
- Avoiding last cycles winners (22:41)
- Defensive/Offensive investing (25:16)
- Tech under a deglobalization mindset (26:13)
- Valuation is the first lens (26:48)
- Reconstructing the supply chain (27:25)
- Defense spending and stocks (27:50)
- Emerging markets in crisis (31:27)
- Living in Florida (33:33)
- Market volatility (35:47)
- Risk management first (36:19)
- Fundamentals, supply, demand, valuation matters (37:20)
- Avoiding black swans (37:43)
- 60% of the world’s debt is in dollars (39:02)
- Wrapping up (41:11)
- Closing thoughts (41:54)
Related Episode:
Co-Founder and President of Fundamental Global Lewis Johnson Joins Me on Panic with Friends to Discuss the Business of Investing – from Asset Management to the Nature of Cycles (EP.120)
© Panic with Friends, 2022. All rights reserved.
Host: Howard Lindzon | Producer: Knut Jensen | Researcher: Pete WeishauptDisclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. For full disclosures: https://howardlindzon.com/disclaimer/
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