In political campaigns, closing well is everything and Republicans in recent years have proven that they just cannot seal the deal. Who could forget the catastrophe of Donald Trump delivering the Senate to Democrats when voters in deep-red Georgia defeated two incumbent senators in runoff elections?
Just like Lucy snatching the ball from Charlie Brown, Republicans love to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. While candidates and issues absolutely matter, how a party finishes out an election cycle and which candidates have the "Big Mo" or big momentum in the final few weeks matters much more.
With just six weeks until the election, new polling shows Democrats hold a slight, but growing, edge when it comes to voter enthusiasm in the upcoming midterms. There has been a remarkable shift from the start of summer, when Republicans held a nearly double-digit enthusiasm gap advantage. Now 60% of registered Democrats say they are "extremely" or "very" enthusiastic about voting, compared with 57% for GOP voters.
In the same poll from Morning Consult, Democrats also lead Republicans on the generic congressional ballot 48% to 44%, the largest gap the polling team has measured since the start of 2022. Of course, winning the popular vote in a midterm year does not guarantee that Democrats will hold the House of Representatives. In 2020, Democrats in Congress secured a 3.1% victory margin, while losing a handful of key down ballot races and barely holding onto power.
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In another nod to increasing Democratic fortunes, Fox News’ Power Rankings released this past week indicate that for the first time this cycle, Democrats have a path to keeping control of the House of Representatives, a notion that was totally out of the realm of possibility just months ago.
Democratic victory is still certainly an uphill battle given historical trends, GOP-backed gerrymandering efforts, and the large number of retirements from Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s ranks, but this marked change shows that the lower chamber is very much in play. Democrats also have a very strong pathway to maintain control of the Senate as well.
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With fewer and fewer truly competitive congressional races, even a one- or two-point swing among a key voting bloc can make a difference in which candidate ekes out a narrow win. One key group of voters are independents, who often make up their mind closer to Election Day between the two major candidates and parties. Independents broke for Donald Trump in the closing days of the 2016 race and flipped back to the Democratic column in 2020 in support of Joe Biden.
In fact, six months ago, Republicans held a 12-point advantage among independents, according to the Wall Street Journal. Now, those centrist voters prefer Democratic candidates for Congress over Republicans, 38% to 35%. As the Journal notes, "Democratic gains come from increased support among independents, women and younger voters. Black and Hispanic voters, who have traditionally favored Democrats heavily, are also more solidly supportive of the party than they were earlier this year."
Six weeks can be an eternity in politics and obviously some news could drop that flips these recent polling trends around completely, which is not out of the realm of possibility. In fact, we have seen this scenario, and the famed "October surprise," play out many times before. The Jim Comey letter and the "Access Hollywood" tape both dropped in the closing weeks before Election Day in 2016 and instantly changed campaign dynamics.
In key states like North Carolina and Pennsylvania, ballots are already going out to voters, spelling serious trouble for the GOP if they do not figure out a way to change the narrative and improve voter enthusiasm for their candidates.
There is no question that this will be the highest turnout midterm election we have seen in recent memory, and Democrats closing strong among key voting blocs, including independents, may leave the GOP like Charlie Brown, saying "Good grief!" on Nov. 9.
