XPO’s (NYSE:XPO) Q3 Sales Beat Estimates

Freight delivery company XPO (NYSE:XPO) reported Q3 CY2024 results exceeding the market’s revenue expectations, with sales up 3.7% year on year to $2.05 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $1.02 per share was also 13.3% above analysts’ consensus estimates.

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Mario Harik, chief executive officer of XPO, said, “We reported strong year-over-year earnings growth in the third quarter, as we continued to improve the business in a soft freight environment. Companywide, we increased adjusted EBITDA by 20% and adjusted diluted EPS by 16%.

Company Overview

Owning a mobile game simulating freight operations for the Tour de France, XPO (NYSE:XPO) is a transportation company specializing in expedited shipping services.

Ground Transportation

The growth of e-commerce and global trade continues to drive demand for shipping services, especially last-mile delivery, presenting opportunities for ground transportation companies. The industry continues to invest in data, analytics, and autonomous fleets to optimize efficiency and find the most cost-effective routes. Despite the essential services this industry provides, ground transportation companies are still at the whim of economic cycles. Consumer spending, for example, can greatly impact the demand for these companies’ offerings while fuel costs can influence profit margins.

Sales Growth

A company’s long-term performance can indicate its business quality. Any business can put up a good quarter or two, but many enduring ones grow for years. Over the last five years, XPO’s revenue declined by 10.9% per year. This shows demand was weak, a rough starting point for our analysis.

Long-term growth is the most important, but within industrials, a half-decade historical view may miss new industry trends or demand cycles. XPO’s annualized revenue growth of 2.8% over the last two years is above its five-year trend, but we were still disappointed by the results. We also note many other Ground Transportation businesses have faced declining sales because of cyclical headwinds. While XPO grew slower than we’d like, it did perform better than its peers.

We can better understand the company’s revenue dynamics by analyzing its most important segments, North American Less-Than-Truckload and European Transportation , which are 60.9% and 39.1% of revenue. Over the last two years, XPO’s North American Less-Than-Truckload revenue (freight services) averaged 4.4% year-on-year growth while its European Transportation revenue (truckload, less-than-truckload, and truck brokerage) averaged 1% growth.

This quarter, XPO reported modest year-on-year revenue growth of 3.7% but beat Wall Street’s estimates by 1.8%.

Looking ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to grow 3.1% over the next 12 months, similar to its two-year rate. This projection doesn't excite us and illustrates the market thinks its newer products and services will not lead to better top-line performance yet.

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Operating Margin

XPO was profitable over the last five years but held back by its large cost base. Its average operating margin of 5% was weak for an industrials business. This result isn’t too surprising given its low gross margin as a starting point.

On the bright side, XPO’s annual operating margin rose by 5.2 percentage points over the last five years.

This quarter, XPO generated an operating profit margin of 8.6%, in line with the same quarter last year. This indicates the company’s cost structure has recently been stable.

Earnings Per Share

Analyzing revenue trends tells us about a company’s historical growth, but the long-term change in its earnings per share (EPS) points to the profitability of that growth – for example, a company could inflate its sales through excessive spending on advertising and promotions.

XPO’s flat EPS over the last five years was weak but better than its 10.9% annualized revenue declines. This tells us management adapted its cost structure.

Diving into the nuances of XPO’s earnings can give us a better understanding of its performance. As we mentioned earlier, XPO’s operating margin was flat this quarter but expanded by 5.2 percentage points over the last five years. This was the most relevant factor (aside from the revenue impact) behind its higher earnings; taxes and interest expenses can also affect EPS but don’t tell us as much about a company’s fundamentals.

Like with revenue, we analyze EPS over a more recent period because it can give insight into an emerging theme or development for the business.

In Q3, XPO reported EPS at $1.02, up from $0.88 in the same quarter last year. This print easily cleared analysts’ estimates, and shareholders should be content with the results. Over the next 12 months, Wall Street expects XPO’s full-year EPS of $3.73 to grow by 9.7%.

Key Takeaways from XPO’s Q3 Results

We enjoyed seeing XPO exceed analysts’ revenue and EBITDA expectations this quarter. Despite the solid results, management noted a "soft freight environment". Shares traded down 1.1% to $119 immediately after reporting.

Should you buy the stock or not?What happened in the latest quarter matters, but not as much as longer-term business quality and valuation, when deciding whether to invest in this stock. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here, it’s free.